4/25/07 NOW: KS / OK / MO / AR

[Jordan Hartley]

Watching a complex of storms to my se in Cowley co. Im hoping that someone more expirenced than me can help me with this. On radar im actually seeing what looks like a cold core sup. This thing has a hook and is slightley rotating. Its working with 56 tds and winds backing out of the se. If anyone is on and can look at this can you explain what is going on. Im thinking about checking it out if it holds up in the next 15-20 min.

Edit: Winds not backing out of the se anymore with this storm as it has moved n of the boundary. Still watching the back side of this complex. After yesterday with those tornadoes in Colorado that were moving W?!? and getting to see under the skirt of a LP like I did yesterday near Nickerson, Ks nothing is impossible where the weather is concerned to me anymore.

Edit: Complex is falling apart. I hope someone can help me out and explain what happened here. Funny thing is I just checked out the tornado probabilty and this area is in the 5% for tornadoes which makes me feel a little better that i wasnt virtually chasing chickens. Going to continue to watch this complex for more development.

 

[Jordan Hartley]

Area of concern is fixing to pass directley over head as it continues to track in a nnw direction. The outward band on the nw side of circulation has gained strength in the last frame. Winds here at my work have shifted from the N to more of a WNW direction. Just did a little research and I guess what im now watching is a convectively induced vort max aka neddy eddy.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

For any chasers in the area.. . Potential cold-core play today across far southeastern KS, northeastern OK, and southwestern MO as the mid-level low (and associated cold pool aloft) slides towards the area. Latest satellite imagery shows bkn/sct clouds in the area, allowing the temperatures to warm into the low 70s. With dewpoint readings in near 60, currently analyzed CAPE is upwards of 750-1000 j/kg across portions of extreme southeastern KS and eastenr OK.

These cold-core cases typically become tornado producers when there is a well-defined baroclinic boundary around... Looking a current surface analysis, there doesn't really appear to be a good E-W boundary across which storms can pass and with which storms can interact. That said, depending upon storm motion, storms may be able to interact with the NNE-SSW front/trough that extends northward from the surface low along the OK/KS border. Regardless, quite a bit of low-level ambient vertical vorticity is present near the surface low, so any boundaries that may be present across the area that aren't resolved in the surface observations may provide a sufficient window for low-topped, mini-supercell tornadoes. Near-surface shear (i.e. 0-1km SRH) is also relatively strong across extreme E OK (and eastward into sw MO and w AR), so a threat for isolated tornadoes may be present with any surface-based storms southeast of the sfc low as well.

EDIT: This is a borderline NOW-FCST post. However, there isn't a FCST thread for this date yet, and storms are already underway across the area. So, I'll stick it in this NOW thread, since I don't think there's much time left for a FCST thread.

EDIT 2: 15z SGF soundings confirms that, with surface temps in the low-70s and Tds near 60, the environment looks pretty good to support a threat of low-topped and/or mini-supercells in the area --> http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/07042515_OBS/SGF.gif

 

[Jordan Hartley]

FOR ADMIN: Pls add OK/MO to the topic title. Add AK if you think its needed.

This is getting more and more interesting by the minute. SPC has put out a MD for this area calling for large hail as the primary threat but as Jeff said earlier there is a very small chance for a tornado. It also mentions the need for a ww soon. Vis sat is showing a clearing in se Ks and ne OK so heating wont be a problem. Cells have popped up in the last hour N of Tulsa in ne OK. Just have to wait(like always) a little bit and see whats going to happen next.

Edit: svr wrn for Craig and Nowata Co in ne Ok. This storm has got cold core sup written all over it, now will it produce? Storm is tracking ne at 15 mph. This storm will cross the state line and into Labette and Cherokee co but will take its time doing so. Also add Osage to the svr wrn list as well.

 

[Brian Stertz]

Seeing the potential for some mini-supercells with possibly even a few isolated tornadoes across EC Kansas into WC Missouri...this may even include the southern parts of the KC Metro. -20 to -22 500mb temps are located across this area early this afternoon, and some breaks are now occurring here in Lenexa and points southward. Maybe a spur of the moment chase in order today?? Certainly will keep my eyes on the radar as the afternoon progresses. Radar shows a nice east-west oriented line of small storms and possible seedlings of mini-supercells as it continues to move northward and instability increases. Hmmmm.

 

[Jordan Hartley]

Observing a fairly impressive tower to my E that is giving birth to an anvil as we speak, that I can make out through the clearing of the anvil that is overhead from the storms earlier this morning. Looks low-topped and very crisp. Will have to keep an eye on this storm.

 

[Jordan Hartley]

My guess is the tower I observed earlier is the storm in Allen co. in se Ks. Both this storm and the one in Coffey co need to be watched. Further S in OK im not seeing anything to get me excited mini-sup wise so my focus will continue to be on E Ks at the moment. Winds backing more out of the se near the boundary. Also wanted to note that I have enjoyed watching this vort max in my area. Although visually all you can see is rain on vis sat and radar this vort max has put on quite a show. Y is the ICT radar down?

 

[Chris Wilburn]

I was on the Craig county cell earlier and it did have cold core written all over it. Saw a really nice lowering at one point until rain from the back side of the storm made viewing difficult. Soon after that the storm died. Currently sitting just west of Welch waiting on something to look good.

 

[afischer]

Was just out running errands and noted plenty of scary looking clouds in KC North. Several rather elevated-looking and very dark convective bases, even one with condensing inflow! Looks like we're just north of the boundary... perhaps I should be paying more attention for the possibility of a local chase.

 

[Marc Austin]

There are currently tornado warnings for several counties in central IL. I'm assuing these are LP cells as they hardly appear on radar. The strongest reflectivity I can make out is orange. Spotters have seen the tornado on the ground! I can understand if it were more near the center of the low, but it seems odd in IL.

 

[Jordan Hartley]

Looks like an even better storm is crossing the state line of OK/KS from Nowata to Montgomery co. Also has a sup look to it so we should start to see rotation build in the next 10-30 min if in fact its going to produce(WISHCAST ALERT). Maybe see some large hail come out of this one. Chris hope you can book it down there asap if you want to see any action.

Vort max showing up nicely now on vis sat: www1.cira.colostate.edu/Special/CurrWx/g12arm10.asp

 

[rdale]

I'm assuing these are LP cells as they hardly appear on radar.

Defininitely not LP... These aren't supercells, they are just showers along the front. No lightning. So basically cold-air funnel type spinups are reaching the ground, no threat other than to your doghouse, and not able to be detected by radar. So NWS just blankets the entire area, making sure the funnels don't go down with a "miss" and that the public ignores real tornado warnings.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Looks like a tornado warning now on the cell coming out of Linn/Miami Co., KS - southwest of Harrisonville. I've been watching it for a while now as it developed a meso - might have to take a closer look at that one.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

Yes that storm is developing a hook and is heading straight towards my house!!! There is a reported funnel with this storm as well as it heads straight north.

 

[Jordan Hartley]

Impressive looking cell now in Cass Co, MO the same one mike was talking about earlier. Storm still holding together nicely as it continues on its nrn track although im sure the meso is traveling in more of a ne direction. Storm still tornadic and wont be surprised if one does drop out of this storm.