4/24/06 NOW: KS/OK

Kevin Statler2

Tornado watch issued for Southcentral KS and Western and Central OK until 9pm. Storms expected to initiate along outflow boundaries next couple hours.
 
Currently, a well-defined low pressure center is intensifying in southern Woods County at the intersection of the dryline and outflow boundary. Due east surface winds north of the boundary underneath the approaching shortwave have yielded 45 knot deep layer shear, more than supportive of supercells. Initiation is likely in the next hour or so in Major county/Garfield county as the cap is rapidly eroded. If a cell can root itself along the OFB, there will be ample low-level vorticity (per mesoanalysis) to sustain strong mesocyclones and a few tornadoes.

It also appears that the cold front has not progressed as quickly as this morning's model runs expected, so I don't see the triple point rapidly building to the south and instead remaining in north-central Oklahoma. Let the games begin!
 
Derek Williams and I are currently analyzing data at the Microtel Inn and Suites in Hinton, OK. Interestingly, the surface winds here are out of the WSW which does not bode well for storms further south of the surface low. At this point, we are going to head north/northwest along 281 to try to intersect the OFB/front combo and take advantage of better sfc winds.
 
Yea Lance, it appears flow to the S/SE of the sfc low has veered quite a bit, even as far E as Candian County. Looks like the real deal would be if a storm initiates along the triple point and roots along the pre-exisiting SWD drifting OFB, as Michael pointed out earlier. I'm nowcasting for a few folks, and Kingfisher and Logan Counties are looking better and better.

EDIT: Returns now showing up from VNX in extreme N Kingfisher and S Garfield Counties. If a cell becomes established, it would be in a very favorable position if it roots and doesn't cross the cold pool.
 
Anyone in the Enid, Ok area? Some nice looking cells starting to get really defined in the area. Under a watch right now on some of the cells.
 
A small area of rotation appears to have rapidly developed on the Garfield county storm. Doesnt seem to go up many levels though, which seems odd to me.

Must have been a figment of the radar or something, becuase it was there for two scans and is now abruptly gone. That would explain why it didn't seem to match up.
 
You can see storms initiate as the outflow boundary passes on the radar. These storms look to be in a prime shear environment. Surface winds are due east at Enid and southwesterly at 3000 m.
 
I still "vote" for Freedom (or just a few miles east of there) as a target for new initiation, as
I see the convection that has already initiated to the E and SE of there is
moving NEWRD into very high CIN environment. A compact mid-level wave, evident
the WV loop, is approaching the NW corner of OK. Mid-level (H7) temperatures
will cool there a few degrees over the next hour while continuing to warm
from OKC through END. Additionally, storm motion vectors will be more parallel to the OFB then the storms now forming near END. Therefore, any cells that form there should tend to ride that boundary better, as opposed to racing NERD into the rain-cooled airmass.

- bill
 
The hail core forming over Breckinridge, OK is now forecasted to have over 3.50" hail in it. Areas between Hunter and Breckinridge will be likely areas to see this estimated large hail fall to the ground over the next 5-15 minutes.

Breckinridge proper probably experience hail in the 1.5"-2.0" range as this cell passed over accroding to GR2AE estimates...

Still not seeing much in the way of rotation with many of these storms. New storms near OKC might be forming marginally severe hail cores.
 
Is anyone in contact with folks in the field? I'm not too confident those storms are surface based in northcentral OK. Cells seemed to accelerate away from the outflow boundary - and motions seem too fast for the environment for surface-based cells (plus vis sat is lacking much cu well north of the OFB). Suspect these are all a bit elevated. Intersection of ~dryline and outflow still sitting (currently 'dormant') in southeastern Major county around Isabella. I'd hope for new convective development there in the next hour or so. Also - not sure if any storms will get going in the 'backwash' extending to the northwest through Woods into Comanche county (KS) - which has remained in good insolation and appears to have favorable deep layer shear profiles. Low-level wind profiles back there aren't great but probably good enough if a cell can get going.

I'll add that if there is any hope those cells are surface based - then the merger ongoing in eastern Garfield county should make it pretty clear in the next 30 min. or so.

Glen
 
I'm currently in Enid. We saw the cells develop sw of here and move over enid. We were not impressed with it, in fact we never saw a base or rain free area. I would say that these where not sfc based. We are still waiting in Enid. The storm motions on those are definitely little funky!
 
Storm just SW of Guthriw may potentially drop hail of 1.0" to 1.5" in the city within the next 5-10 minutes....

Storm over Hunter heading into Lamont area of SE Grant County, OK has hail estimate up to 2.0-2.3"....
 
In Guthrie right now along I-35. I wouldnt say the cell to the north is elevated. Nice rain free base right now, trying to form a W.C. not sure it will happen though.
 
Looks like a developing meso south of Red Rock and northeast of Perry, OK on the Noble county storm. It looks like the storm with the best shot of developing tornadic activity, but that storm to the south could choke it off fairly easily....

Area near Billings in northwest Billings County should be watched as well...
 
According to OKC radar, the cell merger over far eastern Noble County, OK caused that storm to quickly form rotation at the lowest tilt, around 5000ft. Hard telling if it will stay around for long, as many other storms that have developed low level rotation have ended up losing it within a few scans....

Tornado warning for cell southwest of Wichita, KS is warning for the possibility of an anticyclonic tornado....
 
Looks like the true dryline/cold front is finally starting to show its hand in northeast Kiowa Co. OK per latest visible imagery and 524pm KTLX base reflectivity.
 
Hopefully chasers aren't getting overly distracted by the line of supes from ICT south, which still do not appear to be sufficiently rooted in the boundary layer and are likely producing little more than some very large hail - - - my feeling is that there is appreciable convergence still further west closer to the triple point, and the dryline appears to be making a bulge to the northeast. There is a pocket of Cu running in a line from Woods into Major and Alfalfa counties that I would be more interested in watching at this point. It appears to be firming up a bit. So far, not that impressive of an afternoon in all, but that could change shortly -
 
Hopefully chasers aren't getting overly distracted by the line of supes from ICT south, which still do not appear to be sufficiently rooted in the boundary layer and are likely producing little more than some very large hail - - - my feeling is that there is appreciable convergence still further west closer to the triple point, and the dryline appears to be making a bulge to the northeast. There is a pocket of Cu running in a line from Woods into Major and Alfalfa counties that I would be more interested in watching at this point. It appears to be firming up a bit. So far, not that impressive of an afternoon in all, but that could change shortly -
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It does appear as if there is some new convection firing along the dry line in Kiowa and Tillman counties in southwest Oklahoma. Hopefully they have a better chance of staying discrete, as the first set of storms was a multicellular cluster way to fast.
 
Derek and I are now currently sitting in the Hennessey library checking out some more info. For the last two hours we have continually watched impressive-looking towers go up and subsequently disconnect from their bases....seems to be a bit of a cap issue at the moment. It was really interesting hitting the OFB along hwy 51 eastbound between here and Okeene as the wind shifted from the WSW at about 20 to ENE at about 10-15. We couldn't be better situated in reference to the triple point and we are just going to sit here and wait for something to finally sustain itself.
 
Boom! Two discrete cells have exploded along the dryline in W SW Okla. Cape is btw 4000-4500 j/kg. With that type of instability we should see some large hail and rotation, even though shear is rather week, large instability may be able to force some low level rotation :unsure:
 
In addition to the nice storms (with great overshooting tops) that have fired along the dryline in SW Oklahoma, Lance is probably in a pretty good position - there is another group of towers that appear to be on the verge of initiation (if not already initiating) just southwest of Hennessey. Looks to me like the real show is finally starting up -

I'm still eyeing that area around Alva to Wakita too ...
 
There is a pocket of Cu running in a line from Woods into Major and Alfalfa counties that I would be more interested in watching at this point. It appears to be firming up a bit. So far, not that impressive of an afternoon in all, but that could change shortly -
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Unfortunately, a layer of very dry air between 10,000 and 15,000 ft has surged into that area from the SW. Convection initiated at the DL/OBF triple point in southeastern Woods CO, and the entrainment of this dry air into the updraft killed it. So, it looks like things are probably not going to happen there at this point.

- bill
 
Cell in Central Caddo County getting its act together...but as the cf overtakes the dl, we are transitioning to linear, and you can see this already on the returns.

If it can stay discrete and not get disrupted in the next 1-2 hours, will be interesting to see what happens with it. Screaming eagle look developing, tops over 45kft, VIL >= 65, and some organizing rotation at T2 & T3. I don't like WxTap's velocity products, and it's times like these that I wish I had my Windows box and GRLevel3 handy ;)

EDIT: And the cell in Caddo Cty is getting disrupted as the cf/dl is starting to fill in. Wonder if anyone is playing a tail-end charlie down in SW OK?
 
The cell approaching Tulsa isn't looking to bad, the low level rotation has weakend significantly but it sitll shows a strong mesocyclone and appendage.
 
I think the Tulsa storm is actually looking better, I think its interference with being so close to the radar might be making it look like it has weaker rotation but when you check it out from a different radar sight it looks pretty mean
 
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