I'm a little surprised that there isn't more discussion regarding the chase potential in KS tomorrow afternoon and evening... Perhaps the gas prices are gettin' to some folks... :lol:
As it stands now, my primary concern is moisture recovery. Regardless of what the models indicate, the true 60F isodrosotherm is still way down in Texas (Fort Stockton to near San Angelo back down to near San Antonio). There were a few more 60-65F tds showing up farther north into central TX around 2-3pm, but those have seemingly mixed out, which also makes me concerned about moisture depth. With a high along the central Mississippi, the air entering eastern TX is just dry cP air being circulated from the eastern US. So, it looks like much of the moisture hopes for tomorrow will have to take the west Texas scenic route up into the target area. Fortunately, the models are forecasting a 30-45kt southerly LLJ from southwestern TX into southern KS tonight. The 12z DRT sounding showed a relatively deep moist layer up to nearly 800mb, so that'll help. (Note that 12z BRO sounding had a rather shallow moist layer of only ~30mb deep) There is the possibility that an organized MCS may roll across western and central Texas overnight, with any organized cold pool and OFB acting to severely disrupt moisture return.
IF we can really get >63F tds into the area tomorrow, then we'll have to deal with my secondary concern -- weak flow aloft. As has been advertised for a while now, the stronger 500mb flow will stay in the southwestern US until the trough kicks out Monday. Fortunately for us, strongly backed low-level flow will aid in offsetting the marginal flow aloft to yield deep-layer shear profiles that are still supportive of supercells. Hodographs from model forecast soundings (which really need to be taken with a grain of salt since they were 36hr forecasts) indicated quite nice curvature for tornadoes. The overall magnitude of the winds isn't impressive, but any supercells will likely intensify that (at least in the inflow layer / low-levels) given the relatively strong CAPE progged. LCLs may be another issue, but less so as one heads farther north from the warm front (also into progressively more stable air). I see that the 18z NAM run now keeps the low a little farther southwest. Overall, it looks like I'll be making headway towards Salina or Great Bend tomorrow. Obviously, I'll have more confidence in a target area when I see the surface obs tomorrow morning.