Skip Talbot
EF5
Based off the RUC, Mesoanalysis, and satellite, here are my thoughts for the day's setup: As SPC has noted we have a stacked low. Although speed shear looks quite good for severe weather over the targeted area, the directional shear is going to be lacking. There is very little veering from 850 to 500 in IA. Storms here will probably not stay supercellular for long. Also working against today's setup is the forecasted instability. I believe the RUC maybe underforecasting the CAPE by only showing pockets of 500 J/Kg over IA and MO. Mesoanalysis already has a pocket of 1000 J/Kg over Kansas, and I expect this dryslot on satellite imagery that SPC has also pointed out, to destabilize the environment more than the models are indicating. With that said, portions of MO and souther IA may see CAPE over 1000 J/Kg. Helicity values are very high in Missouri where the shortwave and LLJ are at their peaks and the veering is improved. I'd target the I-35 corridor in extreme southern IA and northern MO. Crappy chase terrain, the distance, before a work day, and the lack of critical instability are going to make me pass on this one. Good luck to those heading out. I think this has the potential be a great local chase for those in the area.
