4/20/04: FCST: Central/Southern Plains

[Gabe Garfield]

Backed winds are evident now, based on current mesonet station observations. I'll be heading toward Bartlesville as well, hopefully leaving within the next 30 min. If the boundary doesn't move too much, we could get some decent moisture pooling. I am playing the boundary today...don't think E.C. Oklahoma will be as good unless the winds back a little more. IMO, NE OK/SE KS is a guaranteed show.

As Jeff S. mentioned a while back, the most important type of shear is the 0-1 km shear, and it will be awesome today. With a 40-50 kt LLJ, decent instability and a boundary to back the winds, things are bound to happen.

Target: Nowata, OK

Gabe

 

[John Cameron]

I'm not chasing today (what's new) but the dry line will be to my immediate east when initiation will have the best chance. So, I'll either drive a few miles or enjoy a picturesque spring sunset.

 

[Michael Shively]

well after the last bust i had....it left me a bit discouraged....so I WONT be chasing today unless something happens and something is heading for me but i do wish everyone luck

 

[Roger Graham]

@ 19 Z

Well it is 19 Z 4-20 and I am seeing decent shear and nice CAPE in northern Oklahoma. It will triculate eastward and perhaps intersect with the outflow boundry and light up like a Chirstmas tree =).

Southern Oklahoma: Chris, you may want to get a little east of Ardmore, I have a feeling something may initiate just east of I-35. NCAR is showing decent shear and CAPE values in that area. Plus the Ardmore obs are reporting south-east winds! Dews are into the 60's, you may be in a decent area if you can get east of 35 as the dryline moves further east. I may be wrong but I would certainly Target Madil if you can make it that far east, that's just my guess. =)

Certainly the northeastern part of Oklahoma is the premier location, I like Gabe's target of Nowata.

 

[David Schuttler]

tornado watch about to be posted

N.E. Okla
S.E Kansas

 

[Chris C Sanner]

I'm looking at someplace around ardmore myself. Probably a place north of the town so I can get around it in time. But depending on where the dryline is at here in about an hour, I might just follow it east. Hopefully I see something down here, you folks getting to go up north today good luck as it looks like a good show for you. I'm hoping for a supercell today with some great structure and lightning myself.

 

[Michael Shively]

I know this nelongs in a reports thread, but I can't make them yet. So, here's the link to todays chase log. http://www.geocities.com/severewxguy2004/c...aselog2004.html