mrobinson
I'm starting this thread and left it for a broad range of states since I am heading out and wanted to be sure a topic was started today.
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- Weather and Chasing
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Larry J. Kosch
Storms firing up in NE!!
Hey Chasers,
Another Update for you- a line of severe storms streching from Columbus NE clear up into Minnesota:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p37c...r/si.koax.shtml
Hope the chasers are getting some good storm/tornado shots!!
Be Safe...Be Happy Chasing!! 8) LJK
Jeff Snyder
EF5
Hmm... Seems like an odd situation to have a PDS tornado watch... Areas south of the warm front (the only areas with surface-based instability) have markedly veered winds (southwest in some areas, resutling in only abismal 0-3k helicity) and 25-35 dewpoint depressions... That's make LCLs what, 1500-1700+m. That's very high for significant tornadoes. There is the potential for the mid-50 tds to mix out further. Hmm....
The winds will probably back east of the low in the next few hours, however. And with ample heating north of the warm front, there is a chance for some decent instability to develop along that front. I can't seem to find an 18z MPX sounding, which surprises me greatly.
I guess I'm looking at right along the warm front... There appears to be attempts at intiation out in west central MN as evidenced by towering cumulus per satellite imagery and weak radar returns...Kevin Statler2
Are you chasing jeff? Convection should develop soon huh...
Jeff Snyder
EF5
Nope... Unfortunately, I'm down in Norman OK for school... LOL I don't think I've ever thought I'd say that in mid-April!
I think we have initiation now. Looks like the TCU near Wilmar and southwest of St. Cloud is beginning to take root and deepen. The last few radar scans have increasing returns, now into the 40s. The veered surface flow out here is very concernign as far as tornado potential is concerned, however. I'd be worried if I lived in St. Cloud, however...
EDIT: Right now, I'm far from impressed about the situation, at least for the next couple of hours. Helicity is weak in the warm sector, as there is very little directional shear. Instability is decent, but far from impressive. In addition, LCLs are still very high south of the warm front. This will likely change in a few hours, but for the time being, I'm unimpressed.mikegeukes
EF5
Severe Weather Event is over, removed information.
MikeKevin Martin
Perfect Forecast nail on the spot.
Math proves again very useful, in predicting Tornadoes 1 day in advance, instead of 1-3hrs. The Watch Box isued was issued exact a day before this event, and a Tornado Warning iwas issued by NWS smack in this watch area I forecasted...
http://www.powow.com/orbiteradds/severe.htmltony rogers
Another Tornado Warning for Minnisota: Sherburne County
Jeff Snyder
EF5
Re: Perfect Forecast nail on the spot.
I think most people for the past couple of days have been marking the warm front for good tornadic action today. It was just a question of where the front would set up by afternoon...tony rogers
Atother one to be added to the list in Minnesota: Kanabec County.
* AT 415 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A TORNADO 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
GRASSTON...OR ABOUT 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MORA...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GRASSTON.
THERE WAS AN UNCOMFIRMED REPORT OF A TORNADO TOUCHDOWN WEST OF DALBO
IN NORTHWESTERN ISANTI COUNTY WITH THIS STORM.mikegeukes
EF5
Severe Weather Event is over, removed information.
Miketony rogers
Another one in Isanti County:
AT 427 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A DEVELOPING TORNADO 17 MILES WEST
OF CAMBRIDGE...OR ABOUT 4 MILES SOUTH OF PRINCETON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BRAHAM.
CAMBRIDGE.
GO TO THE BASEMENT OR A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR!
Amos Magliocco
EF5
Let's try to add some commentary on the storm structure, environment, or characteristics, guys. We can't list every single warning that comes out today and there's no need to do so. Mike posted the Kamala warning page a few posts ago, we all have access to that. If you have questions about what to post, the answers might be here:
http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=1039
Thanks
Robert Dewey
EF5
Re: Perfect Forecast nail on the spot.
Jeff...I agree with you very much on this one. Looking at RUC 1 and 2 hour forecast soundings...LCLs are 3-5K FT AGL! LFC are also very high...Close to 750MB...So it is very unlikely we will see significant tornadoes. The LCL/LFC may drop later this evening as the T falls toward the Td...But that may also weaken instability somewhat... Directional shear is decent...But I have yet to see helicity much over 250/300m2/s2 in the main threat region. Yesterday across IA actually had a better setup IMO - CAPE was around 2500J/KG with 0-3KM helicity of 550m2/s2!
NOTE: Here is my forecast graphics issued earlier (~12PM), I will wait until later tonight or tomorrow to see how well it verifies, if at all (the X is my "would be target"... http://www.yourimagehost.com/is.php?i=4119...img=outlook.gif
RobertShane Adams
Re: Perfect Forecast nail on the spot.
Wow. You need to start letting us know the day before instead of waiting till it's underway. Might save a life someday.Similar threads
