Michael O'Keeffe
I'm not sure if Wednesday will be that great, but based off the 18z GFS Thursday could be very interesting with possibly the best moisture of the year. A new thread may be needed for that though.
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Andrew Ryan
EF3
Agreed. I was watching the 12z and 18z run and was thinking about posting a thread but you guys beat me! But of course this now means that it will disappear from the subsequent runs. Even though the GFS has this event happening on Thursday, I would expect it to be delayed to Friday, per the usual GFS trend.
Moisture and instability look excellent. Widespread CAPE values above 2000 in Central TX trough OK up to the KS border. Along the same area, widespread Tds in the 60s with pockets of 70. But I'm not going to get into a lot of other specifics since this is pretty far out and is subject to change. Though, like everyone else, I will be keeping a close eye on this one.
Moisture and instability look excellent. Widespread CAPE values above 2000 in Central TX trough OK up to the KS border. Along the same area, widespread Tds in the 60s with pockets of 70. But I'm not going to get into a lot of other specifics since this is pretty far out and is subject to change. Though, like everyone else, I will be keeping a close eye on this one.
Andrew Stoller
EF5
It's way too early to sort out the details, but if the 18Z GFS pans out, the area around Wichita Falls could be the spot for Thursday (maybe I should have started a new thread for Thursday but things will change so much). Main surface low with the upper trough ends up in northern South Dakota, but it looks like a secondary surface low might from in north central Texas right at a spot of 3,500-4,000 J CAPE. Both surface and 850 winds are backed right there and speed shear is very strong.
Connor McCrorey
EF3
One thing to consider is model disagreement on this one... The GFS is being much more progressive as usual, but the ECMWF is really slowing this thing down over the southwest. Should the ECMWF verify, I think this week has some excellent potential for a multi-day event over the southern plains. But if not, the GFS still shows some excellent potential. The 18Z shows a nice bullseye of near 3000 J/Kg CAPE over Wichita Falls, with nicely backed 850mb winds at over 35 kts over ESE sfc winds, and 500 mb winds from the WSW at 45 kts. It also breaks out precip along the dryline by 0z.
Kevin Crawmer
EF2
I agree with connor on this one. It may be a little early to pin down a day on this one. I read that the long range ECMWF has this system nearly stationary over the SW at 00z Saturday. So the GFS ejects it Wednesday or Thursday and the ECMWF holds it back till at least Friday night.
Derek Weston
EF5
looks like a possibly nice setup.
Per the runs I've seen lately... biggest question is the position and strength of the surface low. 12z was lousy. Models consistently want to put up some good moisture in the far southern plains... lately bringing it up north a bit more, however, not sure how this materialize.
update: 0z GFS run further west and looking pretty hot for S Kansas back through SW Oklahoma.
Per the runs I've seen lately... biggest question is the position and strength of the surface low. 12z was lousy. Models consistently want to put up some good moisture in the far southern plains... lately bringing it up north a bit more, however, not sure how this materialize.
update: 0z GFS run further west and looking pretty hot for S Kansas back through SW Oklahoma.
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George Limpert
EF0
I'm well aware of the differences among models, but they're starting to come into better agreement with the progression of the upper level low. The ECMWF has been the slowest, but has started to speed it up just a bit. Although the GFS has been way too quick, members of the GFS ensemble have supported the slower progression of the low. The number of ensemble members supporting a slower upper level low has been increasing, and the 00Z GFS itself is substantially slower than earlier solutions. The GEM has been a middle of the road solution, closer to the ECMWF, but not as slow. Models seem to be converging toward the GEM solution.
The slower solution should allow for decent moisture return, and I don't think that will be too much of a problem on Thursday. I'm focusing right now on northwest KS on Thursday, primarily because it's a lot easier to get there from Lincoln than it is to get to a target in OK.
I'm not expecting much on Wednesday. The slower solution that even the GFS is now favoring would keep forcing limited on Wednesday, and I'm not expecting a whole lot. Thursday certainly looks very interesting, though.
The slower solution should allow for decent moisture return, and I don't think that will be too much of a problem on Thursday. I'm focusing right now on northwest KS on Thursday, primarily because it's a lot easier to get there from Lincoln than it is to get to a target in OK.
I'm not expecting much on Wednesday. The slower solution that even the GFS is now favoring would keep forcing limited on Wednesday, and I'm not expecting a whole lot. Thursday certainly looks very interesting, though.
jshields
yeah thursday could definitely be the first day of many days of severe weather! i think thursday could be very interesting though if the gfs verifies, but it could slow down even further until friday which might not be too bad bc it would allow more time for moisture return after the current storm system moves through. it doesn't look like this current system drags a cold front too far into the gulf though. the new run of the gfs actually has the low totally stationary for about 36 hours across eastern nebraska on saturday and sunday next weekend
Brandon Lawson
EF2
Thursday could happen, or it it might not. At this point, it's far too soon to make any kind of accurate forecast. GFS is showing a couple days of return flow leading up to Thursday, which is encouraging. But it's all up in the air right now. The trough could slow down, speed up, or even crap out by the time Thursday comes around. I would be hesitant to do any more than keep your fingers crossed, and I certainly wouldn't base too much off of an 18z run this far out (cough cough... starting a forecast thread 
). To be fair, the 00z GFS does look good, but the ECMWF is a lot slower, so much so that Thursday could easily turn into Friday or later.
). To be fair, the 00z GFS does look good, but the ECMWF is a lot slower, so much so that Thursday could easily turn into Friday or later.Michael O'Keeffe
Thursday could happen, or it it might not. At this point, it's far too soon to make any kind of accurate forecast. GFS is showing a couple days of return flow leading up to Thursday, which is encouraging. But it's all up in the air right now. The trough could slow down, speed up, or even crap out by the time Thursday comes around. I would be hesitant to do any more than keep your fingers crossed, and I certainly wouldn't base too much off of an 18z run this far out (cough cough... starting a forecast thread
The GFS has been consistent with this since about hour 180 so it wasn't just the 18z that got me posting about it. And I agree the ECMWF is slowing down a lot more than the GFS, but the main idea is that there is probably going to be some severe weather somewhere. It would be nice to the system slow down too because it would allow an extra day of more moisture return which could make things pretty interesting. And the slower ECMWF keeps the system in the Plains for several days making it a weekend event that could last 2 maybe even 3 days!
BTW I didn't start a thread on this day I posted on another day and a moderator must have turned my post into a new thread.
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Brandon Sullivan
EF5
I guess I am kind of figuring/hoping that it will slow down a little bit, and eject slower, such as the last runs I saw of the ECMWF and GEM..
All the more time for moisture, and a weekend chase none the less!
It is nice to finally see a system however, that has great potential that won't be dashed by no moisture..
All the more time for moisture, and a weekend chase none the less!
It is nice to finally see a system however, that has great potential that won't be dashed by no moisture..
Mikey Gribble
EF5
I made a forecast post on my blog if you are interested. I would copy and paste it here, but it is pretty long and my confidence is low in it, so I'll keep it where it is.
here is the link to my blog with my forecast post http://loadedgunchasing.com/blog1/
Basically I am leaning towards the slower ECMWF solution. I don't like meridional flow much, but the GFS isn't quite as bad with a little more rounded trough. Either way I like the southern Oklahoma area, or wherever the southeast portion of the shortwave where 700mb and 500mb flow will begin to veer a little more allowing the shear vector to be a little more normal to the boundary. Better moisture will also reside in this area and with adequate insolation we could see CAPE AOA 2000J/kg.
It is still a long ways out, but certainly something to keep an eye on. Again check my blog for a full forecast.
here is the link to my blog with my forecast post http://loadedgunchasing.com/blog1/
Basically I am leaning towards the slower ECMWF solution. I don't like meridional flow much, but the GFS isn't quite as bad with a little more rounded trough. Either way I like the southern Oklahoma area, or wherever the southeast portion of the shortwave where 700mb and 500mb flow will begin to veer a little more allowing the shear vector to be a little more normal to the boundary. Better moisture will also reside in this area and with adequate insolation we could see CAPE AOA 2000J/kg.
It is still a long ways out, but certainly something to keep an eye on. Again check my blog for a full forecast.
Brandon Lawson
EF2
Sorry about that Michael. I've got my foot stuck in my mouth now.
12z GFS looks to have sped things up a bit with the trough axis already into Texas, and 500 low much further northeast. But the ECMWF is still doing it's own thing with a much slower system.
Matthew Crowther
EF4
12Z model suite is indeed slower like he ECMWF has been advertising, but this is not necessarily a good thing. Models now have (this is a broken record) less moisture than before, once again dew points will be
struggling to reach 60F- and the very thin moisture axis and threat zone has shifted west, so now it looks like the only chase area worth noting will likely be in west TX. The 850 flow is marginal, SRH values look to be medoicre, this whole scenario seems to be falling apart. The only thing that might save the day is that the target area looks to be in the "panhandle/caprock magic" region, so maybe there could be a surprise tornado, but as of this juncture things are looking rather bleak. Too bad, since the longer-range progs/ensenbles show a large western ridge, so this could be the last shot for the Plains until May.
One silver lining- the two-day event into Friday will give the drought-stricken areas of TX more needed moisture.
struggling to reach 60F- and the very thin moisture axis and threat zone has shifted west, so now it looks like the only chase area worth noting will likely be in west TX. The 850 flow is marginal, SRH values look to be medoicre, this whole scenario seems to be falling apart. The only thing that might save the day is that the target area looks to be in the "panhandle/caprock magic" region, so maybe there could be a surprise tornado, but as of this juncture things are looking rather bleak. Too bad, since the longer-range progs/ensenbles show a large western ridge, so this could be the last shot for the Plains until May.
One silver lining- the two-day event into Friday will give the drought-stricken areas of TX more needed moisture.
Brandon Goforth
I've been watching this thing for a week and a half and the GFS has been consistent in bringing 2-3 consecutive days worth of severe weather into the plains later this week with no moisture issues......ehhh...until now. Moisture is once again a huge question mark, and will likely destroy the setup completely...which is the story of 2009 thus far for the plains. Yep, another opportunity down the drain from inadequate moisture return. We see it every week now...with every run, moisture will slowly erode away. Might still have a decent play in W TX with the higher tds and higher instability, but the area near and north of the Red River is looking far less impressive. Same old song and dance...this is really getting frustrating...and old...fast. Just check out that awesome blasting of the gulf next week. See you guys in May...maybe. 
