4/16/04 FCST: IA/MO

[Mike Hollingshead]

Thanks Robert.

BTW, Joel, nice car....lol.

http://www.extremeinstability.com/stormpic...ics/myinfo5.jpg

Yours is likely an SVT version of something? Mine is only a v6. May as well gotten a gt as the insurance is so damn much anyway.

Good luck to anyone venturing out tomorrow, and the weekend.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Chris, I think you are right. RUC is actually forecasting Td's up from the previous runs, though maybe a bit dry (as you observed with the sfc obs), a bit closer to the ETA, but I still think ETA is slightly over done (this is a usual ETA bias). SPC has totally removed the slight risk from all areas for tomorrow, but that doesn't mean it can't happen... Looking at the latest 18Z ETA, things are looking a bit better tomorrow for IA, especially around 00Z-03z SAT. LI down to -8, with a nice little wave developing along the front, but I will leave it at that for right now.

I may also start a thread for "4/17/04 FCST: Midwest/Great Lakes" as it looks like some warm frontal activity is possible across these areas.

Robert

 

[Michael Shively]

Well any storms that do form tomorrow....should be right over me, so I will probably be out there watching it. Im hoping for some luck....but if not....I have always got this weekend

 

[Joel Wright]

Originally posted by Mike Hollingshead
Thanks Robert.

BTW, Joel, nice car....lol.

Thanks man, actually I just have a GT, but with some significant work;-)

I hate to sound pessimistic, but I'm still not at all excited about severe wx chances Friday night in the midwest. Elevated storms, and scattered ones at that, are all that I expect. Northern IA seems in line for the brunt of the elevated activity, so those who want to venture out that seems to be the place to be. I would be very surprised to see a severe report that reports more than marginal hail. Surface based storms look totally out of the question to me...

 

[Michael Shively]

I just checked the unisys weather and looked at the Td countour map...over the last 3 hours, Td's has been rising at a pretty good clip....55's are almost to iowa now, and it is getting wider....maybe today is looking ok after all

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Interesting line of towering cu around the Norfork Nebraska area. No MDs or anything yet, but they are really really grabbing my attention as I can see them from here. They are not mushy at all and are getting up there. Too bad moisture is so shallow. Not sure how much that would of changed since this morning's Omaha sounding. Yeah that one right *there* is going to show up on radar soon. Hmmmmm. Might be time to kick off the first chase of the year for me, given it's close enough I can see it. Looking at sat and looking out the window teh two really don't seem to match as this looks so much closer. LIkely due to the lack of humidity in the air. Any minute there will be a return on radar...lol. SPC meso page has 2000-2500 sbcabe in the area with little cin now. Nice sfc convegence there. I'm sure the bases will be around 600mb though...lol. Nice one looking surpressed now. Should I be starting a NOW thread..lol?

Scratch the cape, new meso page says it just went back south.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

We should have access to post "NOW: MAYBE" threads ...

Here's your current sounding:

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/oax.gif

Not so pretty. You may enjoy some 'non-mushy' clouds all afternoon, but here's to hoping.

 

[Amos Magliocco]

The NOW question is good, but we might wait until initiation of convection. I had to go back and re-read the guidelines for Target Area myself as a refresher--I think these make sense for now.

* FCST (forecast) is for any discussion of targets when convective initiation has NOT occurred. After storms fire, its use is encouraged for discussing synoptic and mesoscale forecasting factors.

* NOW (nowcast) is only for discussion of storm character after convective initiation has occurred. Second-hand storm reports are allowed in this category, as well as very brief quotes of NWS bulletins.

 

[Jeff Miller]

True, mikes.

Im keeping an eye on em just in case and ready to hit the road at a moment's notice. LOL. Surface temps here, by the way, nearing and going above 90 degrees in Sioux City.

 

[Michael Shively]

At Lamoni Last hour Td's hit 60F am not sure how deep it is though.....but if those CU's can make it farther East....it might start something (hoping)

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Not deep at all ... http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis.../s3/index2.html

The only convergence at all (which is nothing) is along a little plume that runs up through Mike H. and Jeffrey M.'s locations, which is convenient because they can just keep an eye out the window.

Don't get your hopes up for any sfc-based convection 2day -

 

[Michael Shively]

ok....what exactly is the supercell composite....It has a 10 for the KC Area....but from anything else i have seen....i really dont think anything is going to happen there....what information does it look at?

 

[Amos Magliocco]

I'll start a NOW thread for the NE/IA area.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface/sfc_ict.gif

Some pretty nice convergence actually. That low and front should slip se. LCLs are at like 3000m..lol. There is a return up there now too.