4/14/07 FCST: AL / MS / TN / KY / GA

[SteveCarter]

Thought we might want to get Saturday into the mix now. This system APPEARS to be taking a southern track, and Alabama could be in the mix Saturday pretty well. Mississippi too, and even into swGA by late Saturday night. What's your thoughts??

 

[SteveCarter]

Looks like a sfc low, and maybe a strong one will develop around wcAL, and move across the GA/TN border, and finally off the NC coast by Sunday evening. Paramaters are sketchy yet, but all things considered, this could be worth chasing, who knows? Americus, GA calling for severe storms Saturday. Mongomery, AL also stating spotter activation may be needed LATE Friday and through Saturday, with isolated tornadoes. Still three days away...we'll see.

 

[Brett Adair]

I will be chasing. Looking very good for West Central AL.

 

[SteveCarter]

I'm definately hitting this one. To close and to good a chance to sit home. The Arklatex Friday was to far, and to iffy, but this one is starting to shape up to be a good, more local (for me) chase. Some models have the sfc low moving through central AL, and across NE Georgia, which is still more southern than before. This keeps up, and the sfc low will NEVER cross dry land...lol One thing tho...a low this close to the gulf allows abundant moisture to saturate central Alabama, which is where I'll be. Actually, I'll be setting up about 70 miles NE of Mobile, but I'm thinking from Macon, GA to Mobile, AL could be good.

In case the attachment is to small to read, the box is red for Saturday, which is in the tornadic T-Storms category, and the confidence level is THREE, on a scale of 1-5. Also, this is still two days away! The area is central to southern Alabama.

 

[ReidVaughan]

Saturday...

I will be in my office in Cuba (west central Alabama) all day with plenty of radar data, NWS on the link, and coffee going. If you are within range of the 147.000 (no tone) repeater in York, Alabama I will be monitoring it as I always do.

Perhaps, with the system staying on the positive tilt side in the latest model runs we will end up with a smaller chance of something catastrophic happening.

Happy Hunnting,

C. R. Vaughan

Chief, Cuba Fire
KI4ETO

 

[SteveCarter]

I seem to be about the only one going out in this area tomorrow, but it WILL be a chase day...no doubt. I know Brett and Ken Hughey will be out there too, but the latest meodels are calling for this sfc low to track from around Tunica to Virginia...somewhat further NORTH than I thought, which means more of a threat to the Atlanta - Charlotte, NC areas than previously thought. Still, a MDT has been issued for sAL/swGA/FL pan/ and extreme seLA. Storm system will (should) intensify rapidly tomorrow as it winds though TN. Where will the warm front set up tho??? Strong SWLY low-level wind field beneath diffluent 60-70 KT mid-level flow across the warm sector will result in good shear...definately favorable for super-cell development. SLY sfc winds veering SWLY at 800MB should be enough shear for updraft rotation and with moist boundary layers, and the intensity of the storm....suggest several tornadoes will be possible. All in all...can't sit at home and pass this one up...may be good. Anxiously awaiting the new two-day forecast in 30 minutes.


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[Melissa Moon]

I think the best shot for tornadic activity is going to be further south in the warm sector...no doubt the warm front will have some storms, but I just like the conditions near the gulf better with better moisture, the shear seems to be decent down there too, and there is enough forecasted CAPE so that if initiation can occur I think things will be good. Not quite chasing in the plains, but I will take what I can get.

I'm planning on driving to Tallahassee tonight to meet up with a friend and play by ear tomorrow. Right now, I like the Western FL panhandle over into Alabama and a little bit northward. Both the GFS and the NAM have the best moisture/LI, shear, and CAPE over these areas for the situation, and there appears to be some reasonable divergence aloft.

If junkvection trashes everything out into Saturday AM, I can always go to Panama City instead :-D.

 

[Paul Austin]

I think the best shot for tornadic activity is going to be further south in the warm sector...no doubt the warm front will have some storms, but I just like the conditions near the gulf better with better moisture, the shear seems to be decent down there too, and there is enough forecasted CAPE so that if initiation can occur I think things will be good.

Agreed here, though I don't think there's a question of initiation. I just wonder about continuing overnight convection and residual cloud cover, and as you so well put it, the typical "junkvection" of the southeast. My current target: somewhere between Montgomery and southward toward the FL border, although a more northward tracking low and consequent moisture return could reposition my target toward Birmingham. I like the relative position of ample CAPE, diffluence aloft, and LLS profiles in this area.

 

[SteveCarter]

I like the relative position of ample CAPE, diffluence aloft, and LLS profiles in this area

I agree with that as well. This is going to be a whopper day tomorrow. Every forecast that comes out seems to be upping the chances of tornadic SC's. This may be better than Texas Friday in that it will be more daylight activity, and the models seem to be in agreement now. The confidence scale is now at FOUR for tornadic storms in central and southern AL! (scale is 1-5) I'm going to be setting up around Enterprise, AL....geeeeesh...hate to even SAY that, but that's where I'll be. Thinking the WF will stretch out from Birmingham to just around the Atlanta area, then se towards Columbia,SC. Would not be surprised to see HIGH risk put out before it's over, especially in sAL/swGA/and maybe even seMS. the ONE thing I'm concerned about is still like some have said...the crud, junk, and crap in the morning, BUT....with so many other things pointing to a great set-up, I'm not TO worried about it.

 

[SteveCarter]

Now THIS is getting right to the POINT.....73 degrees breaks it? Sounds good to me..the temp here(Athens, GA) today was 81, and was suppose to be 72.

SATURDAY...THE MAIN EVENT STILL LOOKS LIKE IT IS GOING TO HAPPEN.
A WARM FRONT WILL SET UP SOMEWHERE BETWEEN BIRMINGHAM AND
HUNTSVILLE AND THIS PLACEMENT WILL BECOME VERY IMPORTANT AS THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ALONG IT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE TWO ROUNDS FOR SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW. THE FIRST ROUND TOMORROW MORNING WILL BE VERY DEPENDANT UPON HOW QUICKLY THE WARM MOIST JUICY AIR CAN MOVE NORTHWARD. THE SOUNDINGS FOR BHM AND MGM SHOW SOME GOOD CAPS. THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE MORNING WOULD BE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.
PARAMETERS OFF OF THE 15Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR MGM: HELICITY 262 M^2/S^2...LI/S -4.1 AND CAPE 710 J/KG. THE SOUNDINGS SHOWS GREAT SPEED SHARE. IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A SURFACE TEMP OF 73 DEGREES TO BREAK THE CAPE. THE BHM SOUNDING IS SIMILAR WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER HELICITY VALUES. WHEN A STORM GETS GOING TOMORROW MORNING IT COULD VERY WELL SUSTAIN ITSELF FOR A LONG PERIOD OF TIME.

 

[Kevin Askew]

If I was chasin it I would be setting up shop Birmingham/Montgomery corridor. but would prolly change within 50 or so miles on day 1 cloud cover. Will be a pretty big day there for sure. Hope this area gets busy again late next week looking. Bagged nice wall cloud in Caruthersville MO on the 3rd. Good luck to those in the field tomorrow.

 

[Justin E. Reed]

I just passed thru Alabama today, and stopped in Ozark to visit family, near Enterprise. BHM and TLH are telling people to have a plan of action ready for tomorrow, and many residents are seriously scared crapless about tomorrow. A few meteorologists are starting to compare this to a potential March 1st, god lets hope not. I went thru Enterprise, no pics, but it looks like it happened not even a day before. A sea of blue tarps, and the school, hasnt been touched yet, but progress is being made, saw many workers repairing what is salvagable. I saw perhaps one of the best examples of multiple vortex damage. Easily EF-3 damage to one home of Watts AVE, and directly next door, trees standing tall, and just a handful of shingles missing, the house looks like it wasnt close to the tornado, pretty fascinating. Lets hope Enterprise and Coffee County are spared anymore heartache.