4/13/07 FCST: TX / OK / AR / MO / IL / TN

[afischer]

Tornado watch 133 in effect. If I were chasing today, I would avoid areas of far northwest TX like the plague and stay south where the warm sector is wider. E thru SE of ABI still looks like a sweet spot. Tornadic potential will be better if storms can form out ahead of the primary sfc confluence line. The storms will be truckin'... good luck 'n stay safe.

 

[Jeff Piotrowski]

Target area today.

The area from DFW to Waco along I-35 around 21Z- 3Z time frame best chance for tornados. It thinks the warm front will stay south of the DFW area with a double point nw of Waco.

 

[David Wolfson]

I was virtually staying the night in Wichita Falls, planning to ride US82 southeastward through the afternoon, with many south options to meet storms initiating to the south of the front. Watching the vis sat closely, am virtually on the road approaching Ringgold following the convergence eastward.

I'm very impressed with the obvious deep moisture pulsing generally up I-45 from the south and the latest RUC's surface convergence and backed flow entering the DFW met area in the 21-00Z period. This could be a very nasty setup.

 

[bill mudd]

headed south into throckmorton right now gonna play the areas east of there
but avoiding DFW like the plague

if anyone is available for a nowcast send me PM

 

[Tim Vasquez]

Updated surface analysis. The Throckmorton-Graham-Windthorst area still looks pretty good, especially with the surface-based cell getting its act together near Haskell TX. Looks like a tendency toward linear modes out west, esp with the evaporative cooling in west Texas creating hellacious surface winds and adding to convergence along the front, compounded by anvils being lofted NE along the front (seeding the entire front).

The warm front is moving slowly north and will probably be retarded somewhat by the showers that have chilled the DFW region over the past hour. I think that will keep targets locked pretty well to the areas west of Fort Worth for midafternoon, with a few more storms possible along the warm front southeast of the Haskell storm (which will need to propagate east to stay within the narrow notch of rich moisture). I'm not sure whether we can get initiation from I-20 southward, within the best moisture, but that does bear watching.

Yeah, DFW will be interesting later on.