4/13/07 FCST: TX / OK / AR / MO / IL / TN

[Glenn Dixon]

Wow - targets from Shamrock to Shreveport. It might be a good thing that I can't leave work until noon here just north of the D/FW metromess. Targeting should be easier by then.......???

[update] - Don't get off work until noon, but tentatively targeting Wichita Falls

 

[Tony Laubach]

Tom Dulong, Jenn Brindley, and myself are sitting in the lobby of our hotel in Wichita Falls planning our escape. Part of me says to sit right here and wait like a good dog; the other part of me wants to get south towards I-20 a bit and ride the warm front, moving north with it til storms fire.

Cloud cover evident by looking outside, visible shows thinning clouds to our southwest near I-20. Think we'll head south out of here along Hwy 281 towards the Mineral Wells/Stephenville area. However, also liking the models interpretation of a dryline buldge north of I-20 today, which makes Wichita Falls an interesting scenario.

Moisture, shear, dynamics; it all looks to be well in place today, guess the hard part is which way to go with it all! One could likely plead a convincing case for a variety of targets today, so choosing one over the other is a matter of flipping a coin I think. Hate to think I'll reduce myself to that, but wouldn't be surprised if I brought a quarter out as a last choice. None-the-less, it'll be an active day today with plenty of potential, so everyone be safe and happy hunting!

 

[Doug Mitchell]

Currently sitting at a HoJo in Denton, TX after booking it from Lawrence at 1:30 this morning. Still not completely sure if I want to play WF here or dryline further west. A big problem I can see here is qualifying for the Nextel Cup Series event is happening at the Texas Motor Speedway today. The motel here is booked solid with race fans and that will make my road options tricky if I get caught in traffic. So a heads up to everyone chasing today...try to avoid the Fort Worth area if possible.

 

[Gabe Garfield]

What a difference a day makes.

My primary concern (cloud cover) has been addressed. I was expecting to wake up and see a huge mass of precipitation from Austin northward, but nothing of the sort has happened. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if the warm front made much better progress northward (maybe as far as the Red River). Thus, I expect the best potential for tornadic activity may shift northward toward the Denton/Gainesville area. I certainly hope this is the case because I am quite concerned about the DFW metroplex today (not to mention it would be easier to chase).

Gabe

 

[Brian McKibben]

Target area if I were chasing would be along the dryline near the triple point. Current surf. obs show the low to still be out in West TX. Warm front extending from near Lub to Waco with Tds well into the 60s within the warm sector. There is pletiful sunshine along the dryline and the clouds are beginning to be mixed out just west of I-35 in TX. Winds backing near triple point will help provide strong low-level rotation for storms.

April 7th, 2002 Throckmorton tornado comes to mind.

 

[Karen Politte]

Cyber chasing today stuck at work - my long vacation weekends to chase don't start until May.

Wanted to chuck some first-hand terrain info. out there regardless...

Chasers should be aware that the area south from Texarkana to Shreveport on Hwy 71/549 is pretty chaseable in certain areas. It is partly flat river valley and has many scrub fields. The road network still sucks, though.

Also - if chasing here please be careful with the highway. They are in the process of building a NEW interstate/turnpike-type thing from Texarkana to Shreveport directly paralell to the old highway that is NOT on any of my maps. It is a good high-speed option and it comes out on I-30 in AR east of Texarkana - but it dead-ends down south before you enter LA and then you go back to the old 2-lane highway.

Good luck to any out chasing - I'll just sit and enjoy the show while it rains on me.

KL

 

[Brian Stertz]

The 12z RUC sure has a nice theta ridge poking up towards the Graham -Jacksboro TX area by afternoon, with a hard target east of the triple point between Ft. Worth and Nocona TX. This could be a real wild event, especially if the warm front is more northbound and down than the models are catching on to. Right now the WF appears to be along a line from Aspermont to just south of the DFW Metroplex. The "super juice" is not too far away from being into the mix...and looks to be a lot farther along than I had ever expected. Good luck to those chasing. Recovery seems to be pretty much a lock at this point south of a Jacksboro to Greenville TX to Carthage TX line. It could put the DFW Metroplex under the gun by this afternoon.

 

[Donald Giuliano]

The dryline possibilities do not impress me at present, since the NAM/RUC have a lead 850mb trough axis that swings over the dryline around 18-21Z, junking out the low-level shear for a pretty large region ahead of the dryline. The CAPE is good there, but the LLS is poor by 00Z. Further into the warm sector, in east TX, where the shear looks much better, and the CAPE is sufficient, things look more interesting to me large-tornado wise. I am concerned about whether or not initiation will happen that far ahead of everything, but the models are firing convection there, which is a promising sign. Perhaps they are forecasting a small vort max similar to 3/28 of this year to help get things going there?

All that said, I would probably chase the dryline today if I were going, for the simple reason that the only alternative is chasing the piney woods. I'll trade the 10 times better roads/visibility west of I-35 for the better dynamics further east, especially since a lot of times the models push the low-level dynamics further east than verifies. It's entirely possible (not likely given the situation, but possible) that the good shear will be backed up to the dryline at 00Z, in which case watch out Dallas.

Complicated situation today, best of luck to those who go out.

 

[Chris Wilburn]

If I were chasing today I would target the triple point area. I would wait for something to fire a bit south on the dryline and wait on it as it moves north . Moisture recovery is almost certain at this time as Denton, Tx to Dallas and points just south and west of Dallas are already mid 50's. You could play just the warm front east of Dallas if you wanted and may have just as much luck, but I like the dryline/triple point play for terrain reasons. I would setup just west of Dallas and find a good place for data. Like always it will be key to keep an eye on the boundaries (dryline and warmfront) and make sure you know where they are. With CAPE near 2,000 J/kg, helicity values very high, and td's in the mid 60's this will be a very interesting day. Would be nice to get a nice supercell to fire along the dryline and move north and cross over the warm front. Like SPC mentioned any right mover has a very high chance of producing tornadoes. I will sit this one out as I have to work tonight. As a side note the RUC only forecasts 500mb winds in the 60-80kt range which may help on keeping storm speed down more than what has been projected in earlier runs. Something to keep in mind. Like others I agree that Dallas/Ft. Worth may very well be under the gun today. If anybody needs any assistance I will be home monitoring things if anybody needs any help or info feel free to send me a pm. E-mail is [email protected] Good luck to everybody chasing today!

 

[Jason A.C. Brock]

For now I think Ill still stck it out here in the falls. I have every weather gadget here with multiple wx station TVs on Time Warner 17 and the KSWO 24 channel on 366 and of course TWC . I also made a very nice pot of coffee jsut now so maybe that is a good omen. Seriously tho I will stick around Wichita Falls with plans to head south or SE. I may head down 287 towards Fort Worth or I might get something much more local and more South. It is jsut a wait and see game Id say the first initial chaseable storms will fire in an area outlined from Vernon to Seymour to Throckmorton and points East towards Graham Jacksboro & Gainesville. This woudl leave areas such as Wichita Falls Archer City Henrietta Noccona Bowie& Even Decatur under the gun early.
So basically East of a line from Vernon to Seymour to Throckmorton to I-20 & areas between I-20 & The Red River to DFW Wwill see the first storms fire off. I would still like to see the Moderate risk shifted NW some.

 

[matt patterson]

ON the HWY now... Interesting to see the new 14z ruc... Helicity has been pulled back to the west and moisture is also farther N and W by 23z... headed to gainsville and will evauate from there...

 

[Tim Vasquez]

I haven't had a chance to look at much data right now, but it's noteworthy that the warm front is relatively far south... Lake Charles - Jarrell - Brady - Ballinger. Lots of low ceilings and fog just north of the front in the Waco - Temple area. I haven't seen enough data to pinpoint any target, but this sure keeps north Texas and northeast Texas under the gun today assuming this area isn't too capped. The entire zone from Windthorst to Fort Worth to Corsicana looks interesting.

Tim

 

[Ray Walker]

I am in gainsville right now looking at data. I am thinking about heading to Denton and then East on HWY 380 to Greenville. That way I can stay out of Dallas and catch any storms to my south or comming my way from the Dallas area.

 

[Paul Stofer]

I agree with Tim. Dewpoints are also really rebounding. 17z is showing 55 dewpoints in Denton already. Myself and a few others are going to head north on 35 to Denton, check data again then probably head West a little on 380 picking a spot between Graham and Denton. Good luck all.

 

[Richard Halter]

Is this the day for Dallas/Fort Worth?

This is a setup for some large tornado action - i would probably park myself west of Dallas/Ft. Worth and be ready to shift east. It looks like a pretty simple forecast really - the dryline is going to be very active, and the area along the warm front.

Not very scientific (I am at work and don't have the ability to sneak in too much more than I am able to now, but looking at the current SPC parameters, there isn't much need to be too analytical - the potential for a major tornado/supercell event is very significant, IMO. I would not be surprised to see the event upgraded to a PDS later today.