4/11/07 FCST: IL / IN / KY

[John Farley]

Surprised nobody is commenting here on the potential cold core/low-topped supercell setup today in southeast IL, southwest IN, western KY. Looks like the kind of setup that has some potential - surface low and 500 mb low not too far apart, and good directional shear. SPC has this area in a slight risk. I am thinking of a chase, as it is not far and I don't get to chase this kind of setup too often. Thoughts?

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

I won't lie, I had paid no attention to this setup until I saw the slight risk over the area this morning, but I am also now considering a chase. The location and timing of that dry slot will be the key in determining where things will go. Should deep convection develop, there is certainly plenty of shear to produce a few tornadoes over the area. I'll probably be watching southeast Illinois very closely.

Looks like the best area will be right around the Illinois and Indiana border near Interstate 70 and south. I'm kind of hoping it may end up a little more on the Illinois side of things because venturing into southern Indiana can be kind of risky. My guess is that things will want to fire north and south around Interstate 57 around mid-afternoon, so I may just find a spot along there and wait.

 

[Justin Bailey]

took a look at 12z ETA and was surprised to see it forcasting the development of instability up to 1000 j/kg across southrn illinois, which should be more than sufficient to support low-topped supercells with the extremely cold air aloft and pretty good wind shear.

EDIT: Storms are begging to fire off just to the east of St. Louis.