4/05/10 NOW: NE,KS,IA,MO,WI,IL,IN

[MatthewCarman]

Severe storms are ongoing across Iowa into Illinois. SPC may issue a tornado watch soon for Northern MO, NE Kansas and SW NE.

There is a confirmed tornado on the ground near Hillsboro, Illinois so I thought it was time for a now thread.

Edit: Sorry for forgetting the date.

 

[Danny Neal]

How about a date?

I targeted Central IL today, but had other commitments that ended up being canceled. (Doctors appt for 3 PM, DR. didn't make it to office today) Appears to be agitated Cu in N MO along WF. I am still not writing this off as a bust for me. If something goes in NE MO/WC IL I am more than capable of getting there. Right now will be driving back to my place in Romeoville to get my gear ready and will see if I won't make a little drive in an hour or so.

 

[Jason Persoff]

What a challenging day forecast-wise. The dryline marched at a pace I didn't expect and is nearly to the KS/MO border.

As I'd mentioned in the forecast thread, the area just north and east of TOP is about perfect right now. 3-hr Td trend has been +6 deg in that area, winds are backed in response to the dryline and moisture has pooled just to the north along the warm front.

This looks like a triple point play for visibly great storms on the KS/NE/IA borders just prior to sunset. The T/Td spreads are nearly ideal. Backside lightning should be awesome tonight (but cold).

 

[Greg Blumberg]

Anyone else noticing the Cu field in NW/W Oklahoma? I'm seeing definite towering Cu springing out of the Cu field near that dryline. Wind shifts are also implying some form of convergence near that area.

(time sensitive)
http://www.tceq.state.tx.us/assets/.../data/satellite/GOES/BIG_TX/vis70/latest.jpeg

 

[David Wolfson]

I think we're looking at a wave in the jet now over northwest KS/eastern CO. The bloom of high clouds up by Concordia may reflect the RF quadrant of the streak and be the cause of the modest subsidence in that area and eastward. The RR quadrant may drag across south-central KS enough in a few hours to interact with the moisture. TBD, but I'd venture, Greg, that this may be the origin of the backing winds and cloud field we're starting to see in northwest OK.

 

[Ryan Pfannkuch]

Well, after waiting patiently for 4 hours just outside Nebraska City, I think I am officially going to wave the white flag and declare the cap the daylight winner along the sfc warm front. I see the cirrus plume overspreading from the west acting as the proverbial "nail in the coffin."

However, based on the latest runs of the RUC/HRRR/SREF models, I am mentally transitioning into "night mode" in anticipation of slightly elevated convection developing, possibly explosively, on the nose of the LLJ between 9pm-12am. The link to the HRRR tells the story, but generally, this nocturnal show would focus along a WSW-ENE axis from Friend-Lincoln NE through Glenwood-Winterset IA. This area is clearly focused within the max convergence on the 850mb jet after dark. Hope I'm wrong about these last 2 hours of daylight, but it doesn't look good from here.

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/from_jet/hrrr/t2/2010040521/1ref_t2sfc_f08.png

Update: Well, the atmosphere obviously heard me Within 10 minutes of my post convective initiation just north of Manhattan KS on the sfc front.

 

[Chad Cowan]

Initiation occurring northwest of Manhattan, KS, along the stationary front and behind the dryline, strangely enough. Possibly a sign that some upper support is arriving.

 

[Scott Olson]

Storm near Washington is the most impressive on radar right now, with a mesocyclone and beginning to take on more recognizable supercell structure. I'd still think the storm near Concordia also looks pretty good. CINH remains on the order of -150/-200 j/kg for the area along the storms but a right turn within the next hour would help compensate for the increasing CINH as the area SE is seeing SBCINH as low as -75 j/kg. I personally expect the oppurtunity for tornadogenesis to be in the next hour and would watch these storms as the narrow but potent window is here.

EDIT: Rapid intensification of both cells with 72db core above 22kft and the top tilts looking more reminiscent of serious looking supercells.

 

[Chris Carter]

Both are starting to show classic hooks, Washington cell has the strongest rotation. Though the Marysville one has larger hail, 3.50".

 

[Scott Olson]

In the last 15 minutes the storms have quickly gone nuclear. The original Concordia storm near Washington is now displaying strong radial inflow and a Triple body scatter spike. Despite the CINH, they have become very rigrious and are moving directly into very strong kinematic and therodynamic fields.


EDIT: Marysville storm now shooting off antisupercell split.

 

[Rodney Price]

Nice hail spike on both storms now too. There's a hint of it on the .5 slice on the storm NW of Washington but it really shows up well on 1.5 and 2.5 elevation.

 

[Adam Adkins]

Looks like quite the hail producer on the Marysville cell. 75dbz core with VIL's maxed out. I'm not sure how long it will last before the washington cell eats it or destroys it's environment.

Looks like big rotation on Washington cell with tornado warning but there is also a more condensed area of rotation on the Marysville one. Washington cell is looking rather beautiful! I wouldn't be surprised to see a tornado warning go for the Marysville cell as well. It's got a real classic look to it with a well defined hook. Unless of coarse the western cell messes it up which it looks like it may be...

 

[Scott Olson]

Developing the beginnings of the hook. Tornado warning came out the second the new update came through showing lowest tilt huge increase inbound and possible RFD. Decent beginning of a hook echo.

 

[Adam Atkins]

Looks like quite the hail producer on the Marysville cell. 75dbz core with VIL's maxed out. I'm not sure how long it will last before the washington cell eats it or destroys it's environment.

Looks like big rotation on Washington cell with tornado warning but there is also a more condensed area of rotation on the Marysville one. Washington cell is looking rather beautiful!

It probably won't. With easterly, probably northeasterly inflow along the warm front, CINH is more of a problem.

BY THE WAY YOUR NAME IS A FRAUD! That's pretty much why I posted

The original. Adam aTkins

 

[Brian McKibben]

Splits

Looks like both storms are going developing left splits. The right splits look to be taking a right turn and will likely ride the front. Could see some naders from the right splits and good hail from lefties.