I'm a native hoosier, so the setup is obviously a particularly interesting one. I grabbed a few screen-shots from the 12z NAM earlier this afternoon from GrADS, showing some of the better areas I had in mind... Mosey on over
here for a look-see.
I have EHI analyses from 21z Sunday (4pm Sunday) and 00z Monday (7pm Sunday), as well as a few other convective forecasting panels from 21z and 00z. I also included a grid-point forecast sounding from near Macomb (probably closer to Fountain Green, IL).
These all point toward northern MO, southeastern IA, and western IL - all areas, I'm particularly interested in with this event. Fairly similar to the March 12 setup, although, with less dynamic support. While shear doesn't seem to be much of a problem, for some reason or another, 18z soundings indicated CAA and subsidence aloft, around the area... Not sure if that'll play a role in some slight strengthening of the CAP, but it could. I also liked the Theta-E advection at H85 over western portions of IL - and if history (and science) proves correct, areas near the apex and to the right of the 850mb Thete-E tongue could spell enhanced tornadic potential if sufficient MLCAPE's and helicities coincide - which don't seem to be a problem either (see the EHI analyses).
Strictly, going off the 12z data (haven't looked at the 18z data very closely) I'd pick the area bounded by Quicy to Springfield to Galesburg, with a target of around Macomb.
Briefly looking at the 18z now, it appears that the NAM has slowed the system down some and is breaking out convection in it's QPF more over IA and northern MO around 18z Sunday. Thermodynamics and instability still look fairly good, however, over the aforementioned area around 00z, only slightly slower than the 12z had. Quincy still may not be a bad option... now that I've looked at the 18z, going westward into IA may be better... where mid-level support is
best.
Either way (IA or IL, or even MO), if anyone heads out, good luck!
