Gabe Garfield
EF5
Looks like a fairly expansive Cu field has developed across Oklahoma. Right now, the most significant vertical development appears to be occurring across SW OK where higher BL moisture and higher temperatures exist. Convective development seems likely in this area. Unfortunately, the surface winds are veered and quite strong -- this should limit the low-level shear in that region, at least for the next few hours. However, the latest Mesonet obs show that winds have begun to back in SW OK.
At the same time, the outflow boundary in northern Oklahoma is beginning to bake under the strong insolation in that area. The question for this area is: Will enough heating occur on the N side of the boundary to promote positive buoyancy? My hunch is "Yes." Should this boundary be in play for surface-based storms, I think tornadoes would be a good bet.
At the same time, the outflow boundary in northern Oklahoma is beginning to bake under the strong insolation in that area. The question for this area is: Will enough heating occur on the N side of the boundary to promote positive buoyancy? My hunch is "Yes." Should this boundary be in play for surface-based storms, I think tornadoes would be a good bet.