TimothyCarroll
EF0
Just a few thoughts about Tuesday, and the previous discussions . . .
Anything east of the line from Sherman, TX to Athens, TX, as generally forecast as the far Western edge of a marginal risk of severe weather, is going to become linear very quickly, and even with the potential for strong, long lasting, embedded supercells within a QLCS, and given terrain, it does not merit a safe, and even marginally visually appealing chase. The forecast model above ( RMacdonald ), Despite its very good forecast characteristics, puts the forecast system into the East Texas Piney Woods ( 75' tall pine tree's lining every road available ) near, or after nightfall ( as are my assumptions based on previous models), and through central and southern Louisiana, which is predominantly wooded areas, and marsh or worse, mixed, terrain. It stands to reason that, if a chase is merited, it would be a " Post Event " circumstance in which you are coming upon the aftermath of whatever is ahead of you, IF you are reasonable enough to understand that in this terrain and road network, the last thing you want to do, is be caught in the path of any storm, Especially with storm motions at or around 35-40kts, You have no chance to escape, the road options are just, not there . . .
If you put yourself in front of a tornadic cell in these areas ( be it you may have YEARS of experience chasing ), you are just begging for trouble. I have hundreds of severe weather events, and tornadoes under my belt over the last 8-10 years, but I will gladly sit at home and watch this system unfold from the sidelines, rather than put myself, or anyone I chase with, In Danger, and I urge anyone who thinks they are ballsy enough to chase that area, to reconsider, I have made the mistake, more times than I wish to have made, and I have learned, close to the Hard Way, but with luck, was able to mitigate a disaster or tragic event.
Now, with that said, I will say this; I will not be chasing this system, simply because my previous forecast was Dead On, for several days, worth of models, However, as we all know, things change, and in this case, I now see nothing that leads me to believe that my previous statements and forecast discussions will merit any verifying evidence, and that the system has moved further south, and east, which also means in my opinion that the low is going to track further to the south and east, into central OK by 00Z Tuesday. Could I be wrong? Most certainly. However, as I see it, It is still VERY early, in what is slowly foretelling to be VERY active season, and all I can hope for, is for the patterns to change, and see more activity in the southern plains, and back away from this Arklatex / Central/Eastern track these systems have been taking the last 3 weeks. We all have hopes, and opinions, but Mother Nature will gladly throw them right back in our face . . . So let’s not forget how early it is in our Severe convective season.
Thanks to all who posted on this thread, I enjoyed everyone’s input, and I hope to post more in the future forecasts to come.
Anything east of the line from Sherman, TX to Athens, TX, as generally forecast as the far Western edge of a marginal risk of severe weather, is going to become linear very quickly, and even with the potential for strong, long lasting, embedded supercells within a QLCS, and given terrain, it does not merit a safe, and even marginally visually appealing chase. The forecast model above ( RMacdonald ), Despite its very good forecast characteristics, puts the forecast system into the East Texas Piney Woods ( 75' tall pine tree's lining every road available ) near, or after nightfall ( as are my assumptions based on previous models), and through central and southern Louisiana, which is predominantly wooded areas, and marsh or worse, mixed, terrain. It stands to reason that, if a chase is merited, it would be a " Post Event " circumstance in which you are coming upon the aftermath of whatever is ahead of you, IF you are reasonable enough to understand that in this terrain and road network, the last thing you want to do, is be caught in the path of any storm, Especially with storm motions at or around 35-40kts, You have no chance to escape, the road options are just, not there . . .
If you put yourself in front of a tornadic cell in these areas ( be it you may have YEARS of experience chasing ), you are just begging for trouble. I have hundreds of severe weather events, and tornadoes under my belt over the last 8-10 years, but I will gladly sit at home and watch this system unfold from the sidelines, rather than put myself, or anyone I chase with, In Danger, and I urge anyone who thinks they are ballsy enough to chase that area, to reconsider, I have made the mistake, more times than I wish to have made, and I have learned, close to the Hard Way, but with luck, was able to mitigate a disaster or tragic event.
Now, with that said, I will say this; I will not be chasing this system, simply because my previous forecast was Dead On, for several days, worth of models, However, as we all know, things change, and in this case, I now see nothing that leads me to believe that my previous statements and forecast discussions will merit any verifying evidence, and that the system has moved further south, and east, which also means in my opinion that the low is going to track further to the south and east, into central OK by 00Z Tuesday. Could I be wrong? Most certainly. However, as I see it, It is still VERY early, in what is slowly foretelling to be VERY active season, and all I can hope for, is for the patterns to change, and see more activity in the southern plains, and back away from this Arklatex / Central/Eastern track these systems have been taking the last 3 weeks. We all have hopes, and opinions, but Mother Nature will gladly throw them right back in our face . . . So let’s not forget how early it is in our Severe convective season.
Thanks to all who posted on this thread, I enjoyed everyone’s input, and I hope to post more in the future forecasts to come.
