3/8/06 FCST: South-Central Plains/MO Valley

[Scott Olson]

NE KS looks like intiation could be taking place in the next couple of hours. With a good threat area from Topeka, KS to St. Joseph MO. Current mesoanaylsis shows 1000-1500 j/kg SBCAPE and weakening CINH. Glen already touched on the declining dewpoints, as 850mb Td was rather unimpressive at 18z it is forecasted to improve steadily. Moisture convergence is pretty good along the warm front & dry line and shear parameters (espically bulk/effective shear) could support supercells. RUC forecasts some development at 20-21z in NE KS. If a storm can ride along the warm front (or stay near TP) there could be an increase risk of tornadoes.

 

[David Wolfson]

FWIW I agree, Mike, and am (virtually) placed just northeast of KC. Storms will need all the forcing they can get to overcome the CINH, and the best combination of ingredients is right near you for daylight. Good luck!