Man, the NAM has been bad with the sfc low position forecast... 24 hours ago, it had the low in west-central OK this afternoon; the new 12z has it way up near Kansas City. :roll: Regardless, models agree on surface pressures falling and cyclogenesis commencing farther south, from cenral OK into Texas, ahead of the strong vort max that'll head out of NM this afternoon and evening. Strong deeplayer shear, and upper-50s to low-60s dewpoints, should support supercells as the initial mode. Both the 12z RUC and the new 12z NAM show initiation in southcentral OK before 0z, though the NAM also shows precip is SE OK (though this looks a little dubious). As pressures all in this area, both the RUC and NAM indicate a kink in the dryline developing over sc/sw OK as moisture in north TX heads northward. With 1500+ SBCAPE, instability looks ok... As long as Tds are >60s, T-Td should be in <=20F, yielding LCLs that are at least 'doable'. North of I40, winds veer out as the sfc low in KS moves northeastward, so low-level shear is relatively poor (not that it's much better in sc OK). Clouds corrently cover the area se of I44, but they should move away within the next couple of hours. Occassionaly cirrus will traverse the area, but they should be thinner and less persistent than yesterday. All that said, I'm favoring sc OK.
EDIT: Doh! Again, no time for more indepth analysis (which is needed, since I mainly mention the models in the paragraph above -- need to compare w/ obs!). Apologies.