3/31/06 FCST IL/IN/OH

I basically called off heading into Missouri today do to car problems. With that said I'm looking into tomarrow's forcast central IL/IN/OH. The cold front that is reking havek on MS valley today will be coming overhead tomorrow morning and afternoon. I'm hoping that we won't have too much cloud cover from early(1:00a.m.) morning storms left over to get some heating. I'm not a wizz on forcasting, but if I would have to pick a target any in Indiana tomarrow it would be, anywhere from the IN/MI border down to around pass Indianpolis looks good. If any one is planning to chase tomarrow I would like to hear your thoughts.
 
The models I have looked at are showing Td of 50's and T's of 60's and CAPE in the 500's which is crapstorms.

Having said that I think the models are having a really tough time with this double low line merging into one. I think we are going to need some heating to improve the values. At this time planning on re-looking at later models and making a decision around noon tomorrow as moisture axis moves through in afternoon.
 
I'm guessing that both the GFS and NAM are being a bit optistic for convective potential in Indiana tomorrow. The NAM's 2m temps and dewpoints seem a bit too warm, given the deep layer moisture pool... and I don't feel that enough drying will occur within the mid-layers to allow for conditional instability to develop. In other words, I think the rain/thunderstorms overnight tonight will pretty much kill potential for deep convection in Indiana. With sufficient instability, however, you may see low-topped convection over the south... And if that would happen, it likely won't be until at or around dusk. Dusk in the hills of southern Indiana -- a nightmare of a chase, if you ask me...

My two cents... for what it's worth.
 
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