3/29/11 FCST: TX/LA/MS

[ChristianTerry]

Looking at tomorrow maybe not for tornadic storms, but some large hail and damaging winds. Moisture looks quite good for the south. Shear looks kinda weak however and the instability might be a little low to medium with joules 750-1250 and the majority of the larger CAPE will remain offshore. Could be a pretty stout cap as well especially in Texas.

 

[Zack Cooper]

I am not extremely excited about the setup, but I will, however, be chasing in E TX. Looks like if the cap can break some decent storms can get going, although moisture is somewhat limited, instability looks decent, with CAPE to 1500 j/kg.

 

[ChristianTerry]

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.ph...iew=large&archive=false&sounding=y&sndclick=y

Im not really good at understand soundings, so if anyone could help me this is near Houston tomorrow at around 12z+27. Rain chances are only at 30% in my area so im wondering how good the chance is near Houston. Agreed with zack. I still don't see a big tornadic threat. Maybe some in Central Texas close to the greater shear.

 

[TimothyCarroll]

East Texas is almost Impossible chase territory. 75' Tall pine tree's lining every road from Houston to Texarkana . . . . The models are suggestive of high based non-supercell structure, with a low probability of organized severe. A few discreet supercells may pop up along and near I-45 from about Corsicanna, TX to Conroe, TX but the likelihood of this happening is slim to none.

I wouldn't put any hope into this one, Its a short drive for me, from Dallas, but I wouldn't go out on a limb to chase a slight with little probability, in the East Texas Piney Woods . . . just my honest opinion. . .

 

[Michael Nicolaou]

It looks like today may produce some great hail cores over the Rio Grande Valley in SW Texas. Eagle Pass always seems to be a great place to catch these storms as impulses move off the Mexican mountains. With a fairly stout cap in place any storm that breaks through should go SVR and produce decent sized hail between 5pm and 9pm tonight. I'd prefer a little more curve in the hodographs to get some spin on these storms, but at this point in our drought any rain will be welcomed.

 

[ChristianTerry]

I live in Houston, so I can give an update for right now. Cap might be hard to break. Very thick cloud-cover and some drizzle here. Moisture is quite good at the surface level so the rain could be nice later. Some shear in the atmosphere, but still low. Some higher instability levels are starting to move onshore.

Current sounding on RUC for Houston:

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.ph...iew=large&archive=false&sounding=y&sndclick=y