So it is morning now, and how do things look? ATTM, there are storms
moving through MO. Vis sat shows clear skies over most of central IL
and 80% of IN. However, a cloud band just west of the state line
doesn't appear to be going anywhere, and that will inhibit daytime
heating in the orginial target area. KIKK reports 70/59 right now
with broken clouds, KLAF 68/56 and clear, KCMI 66/56 and overcast.
The line of storms crossing into IL are not moving to the east very
much, but a quick look at the 925mb obs from DVN and ILX might
explain that. 40-45kts out of the SSW. However, the winds shift
rapidly as you look westward, so I don't think it will be stopped for
very long.
Eta shows slightly veering winds over the area at 18Z, with a tad
more veerage up to 850mb east of the state line at 0Z. NGM is a bit
more pleasing with the shear profile, giving veering winds through
700mb. Lifteds are in the -1 to -2 range across the target area for
the entired period. RUC shows strong Tds all afternoon stretching
from east of STL thur CMI and into the GRR area and central
Michigan. RUC also shows a CAPE axis of precisely sh!t heading
through the target area between 21Z and 0Z. Respectable helicities,
but a bit further west than originally anticipated.
EDITED: Well, I was going to head out, but all of my posse bailed and I'm not too excited about the prospect of driving 2 1/2 - 3 hours to chase a squall line with cells moving 50-70mph. Oh well, maybe next time.