3/26/04: FCST: SD, NE, KS, OK, TX

[David Drummond]

Topic started at request of Mike Geukes

Some links:
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/fcst.etaus.html
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/fcst.etagl.html
http://www.wxcaster.com/models_main.htm
http://www.wxcaster2.com/central_models.htm
http://www.wxcaster.com/conus_0012_us_models.htm
http://www.wxcaster.com/experimental_products.htm
http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/svrfcst/

Day 2 Slight Risk for SD, NE, KS, OK, TX
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/d...lk_0800_any.gif
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Climatology for tornadoes in March is not promising:
Nebraska 1970-2003
Month: 03 Number of Tornado Days: 008 days Percent: 01.32 % Average
Tornado Days for Month: 0.24 days

South Dakota 1970-2003
Month: 03 Number of Tornado Days: 001 days Percent: 00.24 % Average
Tornado Days for Month: 0.03 days


Mike

 

[Amos Magliocco]

scamming Mother Climatology

Will climatology win out again?

I don't know, but it's too conditional and too far away for me to drive out there to find out. The GFS looks more believable to me in terms of surface features, showing the best theta-e air barely making its way into South Dakota by 21Z Friday to 0Z Saturday. Futher south, where the better instabilities wait, there's no support aloft.

That being said, if last night's ETA verifies in its entirety, storms along the warm front in South Dakota would definitely have the potential for tornadoes.

What I'm more interested in is Oklahoma on Saturday (I know it's a different thread so I'll be brief). Down there the moisture will have been in place for some time, and there's no question about wind profiles. I thought even last night's ETA showed strong potential, with the general co-location of moisture, shear, and lift. You can't try to pin ETA surface features down at 72 hours--just have to see if all the ingredients are in the same neighborhood.

That and March tornadoes in Oklahoma are not a once every quarter-century freakshow.

AM

 

[Amos Magliocco]

Back by popular demand, upper level support in West Texas just put Friday back on the map in the southern plains. No moisture questions here, just cap issues and winds aloft. The impulse swinging into the area Friday afternoon (see hot-off-the-press 12Z ETA) may address those issues. This s/w comes from the Mexican data void, so break out your channel imagery and profilers.

I see a caprock in my future. 8)

A

 

[mikegeukes]

Severe Weather Event is over, removed information.

Mike

 

[Larry J. Kosch]

Double Header Action Near Rapids City SD

Hey chasers, Heads UP!

check the NOAA weather radar for Rapid City SD. Look like a double header going on in that area. I've included a SWS listing:

SDC093-262215-

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
240 PM MST FRI MAR 26 2004

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL
MEADE COUNTY UNTIL 315 PM MST...

AT 236 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF VIEWFIELD...OR 29 MILES
NORTHEAST OF RAPID CITY...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED...
HAYDRAW AROUND 255 PM MST...
UNION CENTER AROUND 310 PM MST...
ENNING AROUND 315 PM MST...

SPOTTERS REPORTED 3/4 INCH HAIL 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF NEW UNDERWOOD
FROM 225 PM MST TO 235 PM MST.

HAIL TO THE SIZE OF DIMES OR QUARTERS IS LIKELY WITH THIS STORM. IF
YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK A STURDY SHELTER AND AVOID
WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 4425 10282 4424 10265 4458 10250 4459 10280


Hope we have some storm chasers in the area. Keep looking!! 8) LJK

 

[Jessamine]

I live in Rapid City. Right now its partly cloudy and sunny out.
Towards the East you can see some thunderheads but no dark clouds. I can take pictures and post if anyone would like to see them since I am probably horrible at describing the weather. This is crazy to have T-storm warnings in March. Maybe we will have an active year this year?

 

[mikegeukes]

Severe Weather Event is over, removed information.

Mike

 

[Jessamine]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
408 PM MST FRI MAR 26 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RAPID CITY
HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL MEADE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA

* UNTIL 515 PM MST

* AT 405 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
DEVELOPING TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM NEAR HEREFORD...OR ABOUT 29 MILES
NORTHEAST OF RAPID CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
HAYDRAW AROUND 425 PM MST...
UNION CENTER AROUND 450 PM MST...
ENNING AROUND 500 PM MST...

MOVE QUICKLY TO A STURDY INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. ABANDON YOUR CAR OR MOBILE HOME FOR A STRONGER
SHELTER.

THIS WARNING REPLACES THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING PREVIOUSLY
ISSUED FOR THE AREA.

 

[mrobinson]

OK all I'm gonna step in here and remind everyone DURING the storm belongs in the NOW thread. Also we ask that you not Copy and paste the entire statement but rather quote a portion of it and post the link.. That information is also available at the top of the Target Area.

Thanks

 

[Jessamine]

SOrry bout that...

 

[mrobinson]

no problem, its a new thing so I just want to make sure everyone knows.