10/23/04 FCST: Great Lakes, Lower MS Valley

Slight risk for Saturday for the following states:
AR, IL, IN, KY, LA, MI, MS, MO, TN, WI
Source: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

For Michigan, will any of this be surface based or elevated convection,
depends on cloud cover and if we get dry slotted, question is for how
long, and how much will the atmosphere be destabilized. If convection
occurs in the lower Mississippi Valley, will that robbed of us some moisture.

Michigan had one tornado day (10-24-01) in the last 34 years
for the time period of October 21-31: 1970-2003.

Feel free to post your discussions below:

Mike
 
I won't post any observations yet (and I don't think anyone will ;> ) as I see no way for this to be a stormday across MI...

- Rob
 
I won't post any observations yet (and I don't think anyone will ;> ) as I see no way for this to be a stormday across MI...

- Rob

Nope, instead, I am watchin the system for later next week :eek:

Of course PLENTY will change, and there may not even be storm, but as of right now - The odds look better than today...
 
i would watch the western wisconsan/eastern minnasota area for a possible tornado or two today. The sun has broken out already across much of the area and temps are near 70 with points in the low to mid 60s. the spc already has a MD out for the area, talking about a possible watch and an upgrade to slight rish farther north into northern wis. and Ne minn.
 
Narrow band of 500-1000 j/kg cape across the area. If the sun comes out...I can see a squall line forming. Thats about it. I would consider possibly playing around with it, but I'm heading to 6 flags instead. Sounds like a lot more fun to me....

btw...maybe if we dont talk about next week so much, we wont scare it away like yesterday ;)
 
Wow, some nice towering cumulus and mid 60Td's currently here. Nice to feel the springlike warm and humidity, and the sky looks like May. It looks like a few storms are already firing in further north along the front.,
 
Ok, I'm actually thinking this will be slightly better than yesterday. I'm sitting here at 64/63 T/Td with a 0.5C cap strength. The edge of the dry slot is right on my doorstep. We are about to be enveloped in bright sunshine. Chance of storms here until about evening. We only need 72F to get things started. I think it could happen.
 
I appreciate your optimism David but you are right...we need heating in N IL and we need it bad ASAP if there is any chance of rotating storms. IMO there is a very small window of opportunity for us in IL. Realistically, we'll be lucky if we get a decent squalline. But that small chance combined with my day off has me out the door...

:oops:
 
Broken low-topped convective line is now setting up in WI running north to south. I'd like to see those storms build south some more. If that is the leading edge of the cold front, I would assume that we wouldn't see much.
 
Dunno about the rest of you but I am getting some good storms today! Already 2 came through with vivid lightning and currently 1.63" in the rain gauge. Another moving in........I am loving this!! Been so weather dull down here this year and needed a good storm to lift my spirits. :D
 
OK! We are up there! 72/64 T/Td Lots of TCu floating around. Radar shows isolated thunderstorms continuously developing and racing NE. Boy, you can see the shear in the clouds, those are some strong winds.

It's looking very springlike. Got 4 possible hours of t-storm potential left, unless the front slows down, then longer of course.
 
OK! We are up there! 72/64 T/Td Lots of TCu floating around. Radar shows isolated thunderstorms continuously developing and racing NE. Boy, you can see the shear in the clouds, those are some strong winds.

It's looking very springlike. Got 4 possible hours of t-storm potential left, unless the front slows down, then longer of course.

Not to put a cap on your atmosphere, but the convergence along the southern end of that line (just northwest of LOT) looks like it is weakening :(

Still feelin the next system to blow through though, later in the week :eek:
 
since there is no NOW thread will post here. Been sitting here in Milwaukee all morning with lake induced advection fog and low-level stratus. The sun just started making an appearance and can see the little cell to the northwest. It sure is a beautiful thing to see some towering cu when its been close to three months. Tornado warning is still out for Outagamie County.
 
Dammit! The front blew through here without nothing more than impressive cumulus and a quick drop in Td's. The 40mph winds blowing all the leaves off the tree's is sort of entertaining however. :lol:

It looks as though there isn't quite enough convergence to get things going very well this afternoon. Bring on the next system..
 
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