3/20: FCST: Saturday in IL/MO/KY

Feb 8, 2004
Detroit, MI
It looks marginally interesting south of MI... (as usual)... Decent SBCAPE, decent 0-6km deep-layer shear and some good decent SRH for rotating storms. I may think of heading out if I can see slightly stronger CAPE...

Discuss SAT:
I think most convection in my area at least will be elevated convection on Friday night into early Saturday with small hail being the main threat. The day Saturday might see some action south along the Ohio River and Kentucky but hail and straight line winds still seem to be the main concern.

Depending on how tomorrow morning's analysis turns out, I'm planning on Morehead, Kentucky for a Saturday evening lightning show. Higher bases = photogenic lightning!
I'm starting to be a bit scared. It looks like things will be in the right place at the right time for a change. Looking at the 0Z model runs on Unisys, the best shear appears to be around 18Z. I'm not too impressed with the speed shear, but the directional isnt horrible. A nice instability axis extending from eastern OK northeastward into swrn OH. As the front passes SE thru the region, storms will fire pretty well. I'm not too optimistic about much severe weather, but just getting some thunder in this part of the world will be nice. My opinion is that SPC is a bit over ambitious, at least in the immediate vicinity of the Ohio River, but we'll see. The terrain here is pretty poor, so I don't plan on going anywhere, but if anything interesting happens, I'll let everyone know.

Heading to Cookevile/Crossville, TN area...looking quite nice 8) Granted, chances of tornadoes are pretty darn slim, but it's spring :D