BrianBaker
I also like the area along 287 west of SPS north to US 62 west of Lawton. Really impressed with the 0z Nam run. Safe chasing to everyone tomorrow...(I mean later today). Hope to see you out there.
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3/2/08 FCST: TX / OK / AR / LA / MO / IA
- Thread starter Bob Hartig
- Start date
Chris Wilburn
EF4
After looking at the RUC I don't see really much that has changed as far as target goes. I am still looking at SW OK to NW TX. The RUC currently only goes out to 21z, but has precip. breaking out in western OK/ SW OK at this time. Forecasted SBCAPE has also increased on the RUC compared to last nights run of the ETA and now has 1,500-2,000 SBCAPE forecasted for western/SW OK into NW TX. Dews. remain forecasted in the upper 50's to near 60. Things could really get interesting towards dark as the short wave ejects from Colorado at 21z to the panhandles of TX and OK shortly after. I really like the SW OK area for discrete storms initiating early in the afternoon. Shear looks good and it is nice to know storm will not be hauling to the NE at 50+ mph. Forecasted storm speed is in the 30kt range which is manageable for sure. The plan is to head towards OKC and make a decision from there to heads towards the Lawton area or Clinton area. I will be watching vis. sat. to look for any clearings to enhance heating and looking for the best area with backing winds. I will be driving a 2006 silver Toyota RAV4 if anybody wants to stop and say hey. Good luck to everybody!
Jason A.C. Brock
Red River Valley
I have awoke to clouds over most of the area but hey it was forecasted. Hopefully we can burn some of those off as the day goes on. Clouds have alse came into W Central OK and NW OK from the NW. These clouds may also keep heating down along the front later today unless they move off soon enough. Dp here in Wichita Falls is 54. Would like to see that reach 60 but ive seen tornadoes in March with mid 50s dews before.
Ill be probaly just sitting in Wichita Falls checking things out at home with the chase gear loaded and ready to head towards the Frederick OK area or I would not discount the southern part of the dryline bulge either. Which may be south of the Red. Just depends where the bulge and the dryline with it occur later. Things could be further East such as Wichita Falls down to Archer City. I am sure some other stuff will go along the drline south of I-20 as well and we can alll drool over it on XM WXWORX later
.
Lets just hope the cold front isnt the only thing that produces storms today.
I have awoke to clouds over most of the area but hey it was forecasted. Hopefully we can burn some of those off as the day goes on. Clouds have alse came into W Central OK and NW OK from the NW. These clouds may also keep heating down along the front later today unless they move off soon enough. Dp here in Wichita Falls is 54. Would like to see that reach 60 but ive seen tornadoes in March with mid 50s dews before.
Ill be probaly just sitting in Wichita Falls checking things out at home with the chase gear loaded and ready to head towards the Frederick OK area or I would not discount the southern part of the dryline bulge either. Which may be south of the Red. Just depends where the bulge and the dryline with it occur later. Things could be further East such as Wichita Falls down to Archer City. I am sure some other stuff will go along the drline south of I-20 as well and we can alll drool over it on XM WXWORX later
.Lets just hope the cold front isnt the only thing that produces storms today.
Mark Sefried
EF2
3/2/08 FCST: MO/IA
Just going over the newest RUC and NAM this morning and it appears that far Southern Iowa and Missouri may see a few storms developing later today. with sbcape now being forecasted near 1000-1250 j/kg , li's to near -5, clearing taking place and enough shear for rotating updrafts, I am actually might make the trip from Peoria to far southen Iowa shortly. I would not be surprised that SPC extends the slight risk further north to include the area. The only thing that concerns me a little is that most of southern Iowa still has some snow on the ground. However, a lot of that should melt quickly today. I just hope that low clouds/fog don't develop over the snow area where the snow is still on the ground this morning. ATTM am thinking about going along the route 2 corridor in far southern Iowa and see what happens. At least I will be able to test out my new laptop.
Just going over the newest RUC and NAM this morning and it appears that far Southern Iowa and Missouri may see a few storms developing later today. with sbcape now being forecasted near 1000-1250 j/kg , li's to near -5, clearing taking place and enough shear for rotating updrafts, I am actually might make the trip from Peoria to far southen Iowa shortly. I would not be surprised that SPC extends the slight risk further north to include the area. The only thing that concerns me a little is that most of southern Iowa still has some snow on the ground. However, a lot of that should melt quickly today. I just hope that low clouds/fog don't develop over the snow area where the snow is still on the ground this morning. ATTM am thinking about going along the route 2 corridor in far southern Iowa and see what happens. At least I will be able to test out my new laptop.
Tim Marshall
EF2
TARGET: VERNON, TX TIME OF DEPARTURE: NOON This is a good day to check out the equipment for the new year. Expect convection initiation in the eastern TX panhandle from around Shamrock to CDS to PDH by 0z. Figure to play a tail-end charlie storm. I don't expect tornadoes due to linear forcing along the cold front. Still iffy on whether the dryline will be a player but will keep an eye on it. TM
Rocky Rascovich
EF4
I'm a bit guarded on the degree of severe potential today... obviously, they'll definitely be storms, but I think the chief mode will be linear, OFD undercut by the surging polar front which is starting to make tracks into SW KS. as of this writing. The lead shortwave is already tracking through the TX PH where winds are veering across all of that area, elevated convection is breaking out across a good portion of western OK. so, increased cloud cover in response to this lead wave will also limit insolation. I see a period of subsidence behind this wave as it ejects to the northeast, but that won't last too long.
With that said, now the positives... the main trough starts stirring the pot by 22Z, convection will likely break out along and just ahead of the dryline by this time. (Ruc model as it breaking out earlier, probably the elevated junk thats already occurring now). the dryline sharpens up by this time across the western sections of OK. a slightly better axis of moisture which will enhance instabilities will commence by midafternoon along the I-44 corridor from OKC to SPS. Projected helicity values look very interesting on the RUC, by 0Z... if that can be achieved, any storms that form ahead of the developing squall line may have a decent chance of triggering a few TVS alarms... hopefully, some of these can be viewed before dark. The major challenge is to see what storms can fire and maintain themselves for at least an hour or two before the squall line/cold front arrives.
If I can feel up to it, I may chase with Michael Ratliff thisafternoon, been trying to ward off this crud thats been running rampant across the community, otherwise, I may sit this one out and watch it from my humble abode here in Piedmont.
Overall, I think 1 or 2 confirmed TOR's MAYBE possible here in Okla. today, best chances along the I-44 corridor and 30mi. either side, steep lapse rates will get the hail machine cranking, up to 2" diameter possible and max. wind gusts to 60kts in the squall line thisevening.
With that said, now the positives... the main trough starts stirring the pot by 22Z, convection will likely break out along and just ahead of the dryline by this time. (Ruc model as it breaking out earlier, probably the elevated junk thats already occurring now). the dryline sharpens up by this time across the western sections of OK. a slightly better axis of moisture which will enhance instabilities will commence by midafternoon along the I-44 corridor from OKC to SPS. Projected helicity values look very interesting on the RUC, by 0Z... if that can be achieved, any storms that form ahead of the developing squall line may have a decent chance of triggering a few TVS alarms... hopefully, some of these can be viewed before dark. The major challenge is to see what storms can fire and maintain themselves for at least an hour or two before the squall line/cold front arrives.
If I can feel up to it, I may chase with Michael Ratliff thisafternoon, been trying to ward off this crud thats been running rampant across the community, otherwise, I may sit this one out and watch it from my humble abode here in Piedmont.
Overall, I think 1 or 2 confirmed TOR's MAYBE possible here in Okla. today, best chances along the I-44 corridor and 30mi. either side, steep lapse rates will get the hail machine cranking, up to 2" diameter possible and max. wind gusts to 60kts in the squall line thisevening.
jladue
EF1
Before the cold front forces every storm to vomit cold air, I suspect a few inflow dominant supercells are likely. Rocky, I figure your farm will get hit as it usually does. Why not just open up an observation deck or two? :^)
Seriously, my biggest failure mode for seeing a photogenic supercell is that the synoptic forcing arrives just a bit too late for daylight initiation. I'll put a 50/50 chance to catch a supercell in the evening light.
Chances for tornado appear smaller given the relative lack of low-level juice but the low-level shear is progged to be quite high and may help to compensate. So the smaller chance I give is really a function of getting an inflow dominant, surface-based supercell to form.
Still, it's worth a chase, especially if you can catch some snow at the end by stopping for the evening in the Panhandles.
Jim
Jeff Miller
EF5
Targeting an area around Wichita Falls for hopeful squall/supercells and structure shot. Not anticipating sigtors today but any spinup will be a bonus. Looks like a decent scenario for a squall line situation with potential for hail and high wind. I'm hoping for isolated or imbedded supercells but again not confident of that.
Good luck to all chasing today. This is my first TEXAS Chase - expanding from the northern plains I usually chase.
Good luck to all chasing today. This is my first TEXAS Chase - expanding from the northern plains I usually chase.
Angie Norris
EF5
I'm considering the Lawton area. Temps have jumped 7 degrees in the last hour...now 73/56, wind south at 26, so they've veered slightly from earlier. Still overcast however. Expectations are pretty low, but it's a good way to hide from civilization and other humans (which is what I REALLY need today!).
Everybody be careful and good luck!!!!
Everybody be careful and good luck!!!!
Michael O'Keeffe
New MD issued for W Oklahoma and extreme NW Texas mentioned isolated supercells by 21z with tornadoes the main threat!! Currently near Lawton about to head west a bit.
Bill Tabor
EF5
I agree with a lot of what has been said of sw OK as there is some potential for supercells particularly toward 0Z. With mid/upper dynamics and reasonable sfc winds 1 or 2 torns aren't out of the question. However it is early March, it gets dark early, and I've played this tune a few times. I'll be chilling south with high $ gas prices, but have my eye on the potentially strong squall line that will likely set up over night. RUC seems to indicate the potential for a more southern mini-low developing toward DRT that may help back the sfc winds a bit more in central Tx. Tornado parameters are strong after dark via RUC/NAM WRF - so perhaps a squall with embedded sups and some chance of a night torn. Could be a rough night for some. I may elect to go check out the southern end. I wouldn't be surprised if BWD becomes a player.
