3/2/08 FCST: TX / OK / AR / LA / MO / IA

[Bob Hartig]

Interesting system seems to be shaping up for TX/OK/AR/MO next Sunday. Too early to treat it as a forecast thread, but I thought I'd mention it and see who else has been following it.

 

[Chris Wilburn]

I am glad you brought this up Bob. I noticed this setup yesterday while looking at some long term model runs. It is still a little early, but moisture return looks to be in place along with some nice instability. Preliminary it appears the further south you go to say NW TX where the instability and moisture will be greater looks like a good start. I will not mention any more details since it is still a bit out. New model runs should be out in the next couple hours and we will see if the 4-8 day outlook picks up on this.

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

I've been watching it, would be great if some how it could produce some action for someone, though it looks like if there is any action, it will come with steep costs, the CF is progged to push REALLY far south, and scour the Gulf, seeing this happen in Early March is OK I guess, better now than latter in the Month I suppose. Check out 180 hr GFS DP tough to find anything above 40 anywhere in the Lower 48

 

[rdale]

It's a pretty nice front, but with the low progged moving from about from Denver to Chicago I'm not sure how much action TX/AR would be seeing...

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

It's a pretty nice front, but with the low progged moving from about from Denver to Chicago I'm not sure how much action TX/AR would be seeing...

Certainly lots of action in the form of heavy rains, though things are extremely veered with the Low way off the the North-East as you mention, not all bad, as that area of AR and adjacent states need a longer break from the svr weather, though I know the SE won't be complaining about the rain.

 

[Danny Neal]

Was watching this as well. Strong front, with the low tracking just to west if not OVER Chicago per LAST nights run 192 hours out for Monday March 3rd. Temps are predicted to be fairly "warm" compared to the last couple of weeks around here. Like usual one of the models predicted Armageddon!!!! and this one happened to be the GFS. Tonights run was much more tame and resulting heavy precip well down south in the deep south. Its still 7-8 days out so these runs basically mean nothing, just to tease us of what could be!!!

 

[Brett Roberts]

For what it's worth, the ECMWF looks a bit more enticing to my eyes. I've been watching it the past few runs, and it seems to phase the two jet streams Saturday into Sunday, yielding a higher-amplitude and less positively-tilted trough, and therefore a slower and stronger solution. For example, last night's 00z run showed a 991 mb low over the OK Panhandle at 00z Monday, a far cry from the GFS's pathetic surface low racing off to the northeast through the day Sunday as a cold front plows through OK (which is a result of it retrograding the energy over northern Mexico instead of phasing it with the incoming west coast trough, if I'm reading things correctly).

I'm definitely anxious to see if the European will hold its ground over the next couple days; hopefully it will, and we'll see the GFS come around to that type of solution. It seems there could even be a glimmer of hope for an early-seasons Plains chase op if that occurs.

 

[Tim Vasquez]

Sorry, we are moving this out to Target Area... our rules are explicit that no forecasts are allowed in Weather & Chasing.

Tim

 

[Darrin Rasberry]

NWS picking up confidence and ditching GFS. Looks like Monday may perhaps be more suitable than Sunday, and with the forecast that means another potential outbreak in the Misty Mountains and Mirkwood Forest.

I do like the idea of Sunday if something decides to materialize early. Incoming Gulf moisture might bolster up the Austin-and-east-of-it area and might redeem the bust ten days ago there.

 

[Brian Emfinger]

This might seem a little "crack pot-ish" but this follows very closely to a little theory some of us are playing with. Every year has a certain cyclical pattern, I won't go into too much detail. This year it is around 54 days. What happened roughly 54 days from Sunday?
SPRINGFIELD, MO
What's forecasted for this weekend? Something to think about.
So, to follow the topic of the thread, I am watching this closely.

LOL, Now I am excited! Your telling me all I have to do is figure out the cyclic cycle every year and I'll know which systems to chase!

I hope a lot of people do believe in this cycle as I'll have more tornadoes to myself.

As far as Sunday goes I have a feeling this will end up being mainly a southern Texas event and not much fun for chasing but I might try anyway.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

I wasn't going to say anything yet because its a bit out their, but the models are turning up and the NWS is picking up on the situation. Anyway, I liked the looks of the 12z GFS especially across NC Texas. Widespread CAPE values of 1000-1500 j/kg, decent dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s, warm temps and good backed winds. Although I do see some flaws, one of which was the LLJ however latest model runs show more NNE direction in TX with good 40-50 knt. winds. The upper level winds at 250mb are lacking which is concerning as well as the cold front undercutting things, but the models seem to be slowing things down so I'm pretty confident this could be a decent chase day in more chaseable terrain with relatively slower storm motions. Still many models run left...

 

[Chris Wilburn]

I am glad you mentioned the northcentral Texas target Michael because I like this area as well. I doubt I will chase, but I will throw my 2 cents in regardless. Actually the southern TX target looks better. It would be nice if the models would slow this down just a tad. Nice CAPE values of 1,000-1,500 in northcentral TX and dews near 60 make things interesting for sure. Directional shear is good, but I do have some concerns with speed shear and the fact that this appears to be a very fast moving cold front that should plow through the area. The 500 mb winds are forecasted to not be much faster than the 850mb winds. There is the potential for some really nice storms if they can get ahead far enough of the cold front to not get undercut. Shear looks really good other than what I mentioned along with really nice CAPE and moisture in place as well as nice slightly backed winds. I haven't looked at the southern TX target, but I am sure things will be a little better down there with better moisture and CAPE. It will be interesting to watch from a forecasting point of view since I doubt I chase it. I just though I would throw my thoughts into the equation to see what others thought.

 

[matt patterson]

A quick look at the ETA/WRF shows a little slower and a little stronger solution. If this 12z run were to verify it looks that the area in extreme SC OK and NC TX would be the place to be. Directional shear looks impressive and speed shear (according to the eta/wrf) is better forecasted than it was on the previous model runs. TDs look to be in the upper 50s with pockets of 60s showing up near the low most likely caused by pooling and thus we are seeing forecasted CAPE values ~1000 j/kg.

 

[Verne Carlson]

ETA/NAM now picking sunday up on the 12z run. I'm liking the deepening of the surface low near Lubbock to pull that moisture back west and reinforce it against the surging cold front. Would like to see the jetmax from the 500mb winds round the trough a little sooner. Nice SRH of up to 500 in the area. If I had to pick a target based off this run it would be Wichita Falls, TX

 

[Chris Wilburn]

I am also liking this mornings run of the ETA/NAM as it deepens the surface low and slows the system down a bit from the GFS. I also like a target from say extreme SW OK into NW TX near Wichita Falls that Verne mentions. Later on SC OK into NC TX look good as well. Plenty of moisture, instability and shear to work with which is always good. I am encouraged by the ETA/NAM solution for sure and I hope this verifies instead of the GFS.