3/17/06 NOW: SW Texas

[David Drummond]

A little surprised no one has been discussing the right turning supercell in southwest Texas currently. Conditions were pretty favorably today. I had targeted "old faithful" that will almost always fire up along the Balmorhea/Ft. Stockton corridor due to the winds getting a natural orographic spin to them in that area when the conditions are right (like today). Sure enough, old faithful has sprung up over Ft. Stockton. Attempted a left split just as it turned right (left side died quickly) and is now heading SE down I10.

Knowing storms I have often chased in that area, I would venture to say it has a very impressive wall cloud on it. The storm has had persistant rotation and large hail indicated. It's too far from the radar site to see the lower levels of the storm, and spotters are sparse in that area, so unless they have an active spotter out of Ft. Stockton on the storm, or someone ventured down there to chase, they aren't getting any visual feedback, and it could very well could be producing a tornado or two. Would have been able to chase that right from I10 in an area that is often horrible for road options!

Wish I would have taken the chance and gone down there, but I needed to get some things ready to go out and chase down that way the next two days.

 

[Sam Dienst]

Very impressive! Looked like it had some good rotation earlier when it was just North and East of Fort Stockton. GRLevel 3 had it's tops >50,000 at the time!

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[David Drummond]

Indeed, right after I posted it seems to be loosing some of it's punch now. Could be cycling, but it is moving out of that favored orographic area too. Noticed another one popping up where that one did, wonder if it will do the same thing?

 

[Sam Dienst]

Yea it has weakened pretty fast. Your right about the second cell. It is taking the same track as the first. I think the Svr thunderstorm warning just expired for the first storm. Looks like the problem now is the flooding just N of Fort Stockton with radar estimates over 4 inches in just the past hour!

 

[David Drummond]

Most likely those estimates are clouded by the large hail that has been falling. I saw radar estimated hail at 3" at one point on that storm. This area is notorious for gorilla hail. I would estimate probably an inch or so of actual rainfall would be more likely.