3-14-04; FCST; High Plains

As soon as I returned from S TX yesterday, I checked the GFS.

Weak backing is progged to resume next Wednesday, and gradually gain some momentum leading up to Sunday, 3-14. That's four days' worth of GoM air flowing NW.

As of 00z Monday (040315), the GFS places a pretty substantial trough from Canada down across the Front Range and into NM. I would prefer not to see any more of these monsters like we just had, but the system, as it is now forecast, would be more chase-friendly in the S High Plains.


I'm all about this sort of extreme optomism, especially since week after next is my Spring Break!! 8)

I know it's ridiculous and begging for heartbreak, but I'm watching every run. All I'll say is that I'd rather the signal be for active weather than quiet weather, right?

fingers crossed,
spring break

yeah i second the optimism, since it is my spring break that day as well. i am looking forward to a great week of chasing w/o having to skip class. now that is what i call a vacation.
I think it's silly to slice and dice the GFS beyond 72 hours, or any model for that matter... beyond 72 hours... and especially beyond 5 days. An ensemble approach is much more useful to achieve any sort of signal in longer wave patterns. And of course, it is the shorter wave perturbations within the longwave pattern that really dictates sensible weather. Ensembles can only give you insights on the general longwave evolution.

That said, comparing the NCEP operational ensemble to the experimental CDC Reforecast ensemble... there doesn't appear to be any reasonable oppurtunity for a significant chase oppurtunity until well into the Week 2 time frame (particularly March 16 to March 20 range)... when mean 500mb geopotential heights begin to lower again out west as a cross Pacific jet begins to impact the west coast (re-establish persistent lee troughing, return moisture back northwest, etc.)

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/ens.html (NCEP operational)
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens_jsw...sw/ens_jsw.html (CDC experimental)

For what it's worth, the CDC experimental ensemble forecasts have had better skill in the 120 to 240hr time range, on a whole, than the NCEP operational (according to my SOO colleague here at DDC who does extensive research on climate variability and prediction). Just another tool to gauge where the pattern may be evolving towards.

Mike U
I'm all for optimism as well. That's why the strong jet streak the GFS is showing in the northeastern Pacific in the 180 hour forecast pleases me.


I'm reading those as well and am impressed too with the GFS revision of the weekend's trough. It is slower and stronger and brings more moisture onto our playing fields of Texas and Oklahoma, with a marginally interesting dryline and strong wind fields. There are too many negatives to list; suffice to say that Saturday looks as marginal as it gets (warrants only mention of possible thunder in forecast discussions) and Sunday looks linear and fast, a strong cold front plunging through Texas. No thanks. After that, the system does a real number on the Gulf (again) and we're out of business for the short term.

Next week is my spring break and I was headed for the Lone Star State anyway, so I'm rooting for the underdog Saturday setup! LOL!

LOL I really dont see anything much happening this weekend... Surface moisture will not be very good, nor will mid-level winds really... Although the >1000 CAPE in sw OK and nw TX on Saturday looks okay, the system will probably stay west of there through sat night and mid-level support is weak. By sunday, the cold front will likely blast across the area with VERY strong upper forcing ahead of the incredibly sharp mid-upper trough moving east/southeast across the eastern half of the US...


I finally have a full weekend off :D starting Friday evening, so I'll take either of the two days this weekend. Really hard to say much at this point, for I actually have to plan a long trip up and back :? , but hopefully something will pan out enough to warrent the expedition into the Great Plains.. will keep eyeing the models and see what falls into place.. hopefully a slower moving system with a bit of help will kick through. I'd rather avoid a setup in which a barreling squall line is hauling through at 70mph :shock: . Stay tuned...

:roll: Tony Laubach, KC0ONL
[email protected]
the end

I hate to join the ranks of the pessimists, but the 'splat' you heard a little while ago was the 12Z ETA dropping any tiny chance we had for LP's right back into the modified-air GOM soup.

Hmm, I hear Florida is nice this time of year! LOL!
Amos, I'll pick you up on the way through. :wink: Florida doesn't sound half bad compared to our forecast here in Michigan.....SNOW SOME MORE.

I can't see anything firing this weekend, but for the rest yours sakes, I hope I'm wrong.