Brett Roberts
EF5
I've been leery of Sunday since this wave first came into view, given the likelihood of cold high pressure building down the Plains right on its heels. I would much prefer for Saturday (4/12) to be a chase day, as the cold air will still be out of the picture. Unfortunately, the latest data has continued with a slowing trend that doesn't bode well for that.
So, we might as well take a look at what we've got on our plates for Sunday, far as it may be from ideal. Today's 12z ECMWF and CMC both lag the upper energy enough that the surface low remains somewhere around DDC-WWR by late Sunday afternoon, with a dryline extending southward along the OK/TX border into NW TX. The ECMWF forecasts low-mid 60s dew points across the warm sector, with convection breaking out down the dryline by 21z. Taking the ECMWF literally in all facets would suggest a pretty good chase day by early April standards. The 12z GFS stands in stark contrast, with a cold front crashing through most of OK and N TX earlier in the day.
Given trends and recent model performance, I'm inclined to side more with the ECMWF/CMC. Even with a slower solution, however, I definitely fear the shallow cold airmass lurking across the central Plains by Sunday afternoon will try to crash the party. We saw a great example of this happening last year on April 17, when the frontal zone set up as much as 200 mi. S of where global models like the ECMWF indicated even 24 h beforehand. The pressure gradient immediately N of the surface low on all the models right now is pretty scary. So, my best guess right now would place the triple point somewhere closer to SW OK or even the Red River, with the cold front adjusted SE accordingly. The movement of the cold front during the afternoon and evening, as well as the degree of low-level backing in the warm sector, would determine whether a decent chase day could still be salvaged. But we've got many model runs to go...
So, we might as well take a look at what we've got on our plates for Sunday, far as it may be from ideal. Today's 12z ECMWF and CMC both lag the upper energy enough that the surface low remains somewhere around DDC-WWR by late Sunday afternoon, with a dryline extending southward along the OK/TX border into NW TX. The ECMWF forecasts low-mid 60s dew points across the warm sector, with convection breaking out down the dryline by 21z. Taking the ECMWF literally in all facets would suggest a pretty good chase day by early April standards. The 12z GFS stands in stark contrast, with a cold front crashing through most of OK and N TX earlier in the day.
Given trends and recent model performance, I'm inclined to side more with the ECMWF/CMC. Even with a slower solution, however, I definitely fear the shallow cold airmass lurking across the central Plains by Sunday afternoon will try to crash the party. We saw a great example of this happening last year on April 17, when the frontal zone set up as much as 200 mi. S of where global models like the ECMWF indicated even 24 h beforehand. The pressure gradient immediately N of the surface low on all the models right now is pretty scary. So, my best guess right now would place the triple point somewhere closer to SW OK or even the Red River, with the cold front adjusted SE accordingly. The movement of the cold front during the afternoon and evening, as well as the degree of low-level backing in the warm sector, would determine whether a decent chase day could still be salvaged. But we've got many model runs to go...