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3/13/06 NOW: IN, MI, KY, OH, PA, TN

TOR watches are up, and NEXRAD showing what may be development across MI ... Roughly along a line from 20M W of Saginaw, MI to Logansport, IN. Original cells that developed have collapsed...

T's are currently in the low 60's across most of SE MI, with upper 60's to near 70F located over far SW MI and northern IN as of 1645Z OBS. VIS imagery shows decent Cu build up along the front as well, but nothing too impressive attm.

My thought's are a *little* more positive, but SPC indicating hardly any CAPE (exception of SW MI and NE IN, where 250J/KG is located) makes me question whether significant development can occur. Of interest though, is the effective SRH across northern IN / SW MI ... With values 0-3KM values of nearly 500M2/S2.
 
Dry air already punching into SW Mich with dews now down into the lower-40's... I think the lack of surface convergence is going to be hard to overcome!
 
I am located about 15 miles east of PTK, so I the cold front still has about 100 miles of "possible initiation" left. Depending on the speed, I should have at least a few more hours of hope left. But, with that said... Even the new cells that developed are fading away.
 
I am becoming increasingly pessimistic about the prospects for today in Ohio and Kentucky. I thought the sunny skies ahead of the morning convection had plenty of time to prime things for at the least re-intensification of the existing convection, and at the most pop a few isolated cells out ahead. But it appears that the line is outrunning any support and is continuing to weaken, despite moving into 70s/50s and increasingly warmer air. All the morning convection seems to be accomplishing is creating an unbroken cloud blanket over the entire region that will eliminate any chance at recovery in the limited daylight hours we have this afternoon.

All I see that this point is brief redevelopment behind the morning convection, in the *very* narrow corridor of clear skies beck in Indiana. Everywhere else is not going to see enough insolation by the time the sun goes down in 5 hours.

After staying up until 4AM last night after armchairing the duration of yesterday's incredible event, I'm feeling too tired and unmotivated to drive very far today :?
 
The RUC actually seems to favor Tennessee and Kentucky to see more action later today, albeit likely in a squall line. The extensive Cu field on the Peidmont east of the mountains is also interesting.
 
Interesting situation in south central Tennessee, and now in central/north Alabama. We don't get too many clear zones to view towers in the distance this time of year, but the TOR-warned tower* was visible from north Madison County, AL. I am watching a couple of other developments---have to report to work in downtown Huntsville by 7pm.

Like the new style....

Dave Gallaher
Huntsville, AL

*In Lincoln County, Tennessee
 
Cell went right over Oneonta, AL with rotation right over the city. Tornadoes have been reported previous to this so it is possible the city was hit.

Est. population in July 2004: 6,314

Map/satellite of the city is here: Oneonta, Al Map

Gr velocity image
oneonta3hk.png
 
Another tornado warned cell is currently approaching the Birmingham area. It appears the main area of rotation will past the main city just to the north, south of Fultondale.

The area appears very populated via google maps here: Birmingham, AL

Fultondale Est. population in July 2004: 6,812

Birmingham Est. population in July 2004: 233,149
 
I saw one or two pea sized hail in the mix with rain, it's a hell of a light show hear, with lightning, literally every 10 seconds, pretty nice CC's and CG's. Lots of heavy, heavy rain, and creek flooding. Still in progress. I will have a full report with photographs up by tommorow.
 
I watched some of the tornado warned cells pass north of here, beautiful cloud to cloud lightning was evident from here (some 35 miles south of the Birmingham supercell). There is a ton of damage from two long track supercells that BMX is investigating this morning. I will get some type of dicussion thread up for it in a bit.
 
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