2026-04-24-27 EVENT: OK/TX/AR/LA/MS/MO/KS

[Dan Robinson]

Today (Sunday the 26th), 11AM: Some observations on the evolving surface pattern/satellite: WPC analyzed the WF/outflow down on the Red River at 12z. It appears a secondary warm front from NE AR/NW OK/S KS will be a viable player today, but I'd like to see it lift some more. There's a storm on it already In Foraker.

It looks like the cold front is still advancing SE through western OK/central Kansas at the moment, winds behind it are still pushing stronger than the southerly flow ahead of it. Near head-on low level convergence on that boundary in OK right now, that might initiate storms too early down there.

The Kansas storms near Salina likely won't slow down as instability increases ahead of it all day. I can't see that existing storm transitioning to a chaseable supercell even if the WF reaches it, as it's already bowing out.

Best case scenario for the E KS target is for the warm front to lift into SW MO/eastern KS with new storms going up ahead of the ongoing MCS. There has been some CAM support for that.

I think Oklahoma is the better play, either the dryline/cold front (hopefully stalled stationary front by storm time) intersection or the outflow/dryline intersection. I'd want to see the cold front slow down/stall very soon. The outflow down south and the warm front, as far as I can tell right now, are the only two plays apparent at the moment. We'll need to keep a close eye on anything that starts changing rapidly in the afternoon. As usual, there should be some big northward push of the warm sector that could change things.

 

[Dan Robinson]

Today (Sunday the 26th), 5PM: Left STL after noon and made it to a starting target of Baxter Springs, KS. Surface obs show an apparent NW to SE warm front on a Chanute-Joplin-Cassville line. Already a storm going up overhead. Will either stay with this back into MO or head west for development east of Wichita if the current activity fails to take off. Favoring the boundary storms if one can get going.

 

[Luke Penney]

For tomorrow (Monday):

The SPC's noon update still had a big tornado risk up north. I note that the last NAM forecast has moved its tornado-favorable conditions south, getting closer to HRRR and NAMST (with RAP still keeping the northern conditions in place). I don't have confidence of there being much tornado-wise north of Iowa's southern border. That said, the last time SPC forecasted higher and I forecasted lower, the SPC was right. And I'm well aware that there's plenty I still don't know. E.g., unexpected things like translational speed of the jet streak can have an a significant impact, and I know little about forecasting QCLS tornadoes.


But here's what I'm seeing:

By my read of it, Missouri/south Illinois looks to be the most favorable: that area has some of the same conditions, but low likelihood of morning storms getting in the way. I'm seeing interesting-looking storms on CAMs in a tornado-favorable environment.

My read of the northern area, southeast Iowa and north Illinois, is this: Most of the ingredients are in place for powerful tornado development - adequate moisture, plenty of shear and SRH, potentially huge low-level hodographs, high mid-level lapse rates. However, the morning storms are likely to stabilize the atmosphere and prevent sunshine, at least partly, meaning we might end up with little in the way of CAPE and surface temperatures. If we can somehow get those (smaller morning storms? enough sunshine? enough wind from the south?), we could have quite the show. But I see that as a major question mark of the set-up. Also (and somewhat moreso with more-recent model runs), I'm thinking storms have good odds of being higher-precipitation, but that's unsurprising for the Midwest (and I know less about forecasting that particular detail).

Overall, I'm unsure if I'll be chasing tomorrow.

 

[Nathaniel P]

Today (Sunday the 26th), 11AM: Some observations on the evolving surface pattern/satellite: WPC analyzed the WF/outflow down on the Red River at 12z. It appears a secondary warm front from NE AR/NW OK/S KS will be a viable player today, but I'd like to see it lift some more. There's a storm on it already In Foraker.

It looks like the cold front is still advancing SE through western OK/central Kansas at the moment, winds behind it are still pushing stronger than the southerly flow ahead of it. Near head-on low level convergence on that boundary in OK right now, that might initiate storms too early down there.

The Kansas storms near Salina likely won't slow down as instability increases ahead of it all day. I can't see that existing storm transitioning to a chaseable supercell even if the WF reaches it, as it's already bowing out.

Best case scenario for the E KS target is for the warm front to lift into SW MO/eastern KS with new storms going up ahead of the ongoing MCS. There has been some CAM support for that.

I think Oklahoma is the better play, either the dryline/cold front (hopefully stalled stationary front by storm time) intersection or the outflow/dryline intersection. I'd want to see the cold front slow down/stall very soon. The outflow down south and the warm front, as far as I can tell right now, are the only two plays apparent at the moment. We'll need to keep a close eye on anything that starts changing rapidly in the afternoon. As usual, there should be some big northward push of the warm sector that could change things.

Oklahoma was 100% the right call. Thank you for this advice as it helped me catch my first tornado of the year just west of Bartlesville