Dan Robinson
EF5
Today (Sunday the 26th), 11AM: Some observations on the evolving surface pattern/satellite: WPC analyzed the WF/outflow down on the Red River at 12z. It appears a secondary warm front from NE AR/NW OK/S KS will be a viable player today, but I'd like to see it lift some more. There's a storm on it already In Foraker.
It looks like the cold front is still advancing SE through western OK/central Kansas at the moment, winds behind it are still pushing stronger than the southerly flow ahead of it. Near head-on low level convergence on that boundary in OK right now, that might initiate storms too early down there.
The Kansas storms near Salina likely won't slow down as instability increases ahead of it all day. I can't see that existing storm transitioning to a chaseable supercell even if the WF reaches it, as it's already bowing out.
Best case scenario for the E KS target is for the warm front to lift into SW MO/eastern KS with new storms going up ahead of the ongoing MCS. There has been some CAM support for that.
I think Oklahoma is the better play, either the dryline/cold front (hopefully stalled stationary front by storm time) intersection or the outflow/dryline intersection. I'd want to see the cold front slow down/stall very soon. The outflow down south and the warm front, as far as I can tell right now, are the only two plays apparent at the moment. We'll need to keep a close eye on anything that starts changing rapidly in the afternoon. As usual, there should be some big northward push of the warm sector that could change things.
It looks like the cold front is still advancing SE through western OK/central Kansas at the moment, winds behind it are still pushing stronger than the southerly flow ahead of it. Near head-on low level convergence on that boundary in OK right now, that might initiate storms too early down there.
The Kansas storms near Salina likely won't slow down as instability increases ahead of it all day. I can't see that existing storm transitioning to a chaseable supercell even if the WF reaches it, as it's already bowing out.
Best case scenario for the E KS target is for the warm front to lift into SW MO/eastern KS with new storms going up ahead of the ongoing MCS. There has been some CAM support for that.
I think Oklahoma is the better play, either the dryline/cold front (hopefully stalled stationary front by storm time) intersection or the outflow/dryline intersection. I'd want to see the cold front slow down/stall very soon. The outflow down south and the warm front, as far as I can tell right now, are the only two plays apparent at the moment. We'll need to keep a close eye on anything that starts changing rapidly in the afternoon. As usual, there should be some big northward push of the warm sector that could change things.
