2026-04-17 EVENT: IA/IL/WI/MO/KS/OK

[Patrick K]

The cold front is poised to blast through everything that forms along it. It's already hauling through Kansas with winds behind it pushing twice as strong as the southerlies ahead of it. There have been enough model signals for open warm sector storms in SE KS/SW MO/NE OK that I think that would be my play, though the lack of any distinct boundaries are making it a toss-up on specific areas. I'd probably head to Fort Scott and move to wherever the Cu fields are pointing.

The warm sector storms are the obvious play for northern target. Storms along the front may tend to be undercut by the cold front, otherwise I think this could be a higher end setup. Someone above apparently thought I had previously meant that the WS storms would be undercut? lol...

I also still agree with others that near the dryline in OK, and also into SE KS, and possibly into MO as well has the greatest probability of sustained supercell structures. Models, especially the HRRR, have been a bit more bullish with time in terms of storm motion (right movers), orientation w.r.t. the forcing gradient, and a bit more low-level backing of winds compared to earlier runs. I'm expecting to see a few supercells pop off the dryline and maintain discrete mode long enough. Additionally, may see a TEC into KS and/or an open sector storm there ahead of the front.

 

[Brian R.]

I'm thinking that most of northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin the main threats will be damaging winds and flooding. far southwest Wisconsin and far northwest Illinois may get into some supercell action, but even there the main threats look to be mostly damaging winds and a high flooding risk.

 

[John Farley]

Not chasing today, but have been watching online. I would say that the storms along the cold front have thus far remained somewhat more discrete than I thought they would.

 

[Patrick K]

Not chasing today, but have been watching online. I would say that the storms along the cold front have thus far remained somewhat more discrete than I thought they would.

Agreed. On mosaic radar it looks like initial line was undercut quickly, which then generated new initiation downstream. Instead of discrete initiation -> quick linear mode, we got discrete initiation -> undercutting -> new discrete initiation downstream.

 

[Brian R.]

I will be going out here in northern Illinois around Rockford here in a little bit, mainly because it's a "backyard" chase.... but really think by the time they arrive between 7-10 they will be already weakening substantially.

 

[John Farley]

I will be going out here in northern Illinois around Rockford here in a little bit, mainly because it's a "backyard" chase.... but really think by the time they arrive between 7-10 they will be already weakening substantially.

7-10? You have a confirmed tornado just north of Rockford now.

 

[Brian R.]

7-10? You have a confirmed tornado just northeast of Rockford now.

meaning for the Chicago metro area. I heard about that tornado. From scanner live feeds sounds like a strong one too.