Luke Penney
EF0
For the upper Midwest on Tuesday, there's a lot of potential but also a lot of questions. Models have been unusually inconsistent about where and when things might happen. However, they've consistently shown plenty of storm ingredients, and storms initiating somewhere, so that's got me watching the day carefully.
Models forecast a moist airmass in place with lots of CAPE (models are often showing 3,000-4000+ J/kg across a significant area) and significant mid-level lapse rates. There's a healthy 500mb jet, with strong low-level winds often producing enlarged hodographs.
Models put a dryline in the ballpark of west Iowa, with a warm front/occluded front east of that. Both would be places to watch for storm initiation, and some model runs include warm-sector storms.
However, models have varied markedly on where they put these ingredients, and whether they put storms within those places (before dark). Other potential downsides include there being clouds earlier in the day and weak low-level lapse rates, as well as enough moisture throughout all altitudes to have me thinking about high-precipitation storms (though I admit I don't know how much moisture triggers that).
My overall take is that Tuesday has a high ceiling, but with a lot of question marks. Still, though we don't yet have a good sense of the details, there's enough there that I'm currently optimistic that at least somewhere will get some very interesting weather.
I also note fast storm movements are often shown in the simulated soundings, on the order of 40-50 mph. This looks like a good day for chasers to be extra cautious: From the outlook now, I could picture a high-precipitation supercell moving at 50mph with a strong tornado hidden by rain.
Models forecast a moist airmass in place with lots of CAPE (models are often showing 3,000-4000+ J/kg across a significant area) and significant mid-level lapse rates. There's a healthy 500mb jet, with strong low-level winds often producing enlarged hodographs.
Models put a dryline in the ballpark of west Iowa, with a warm front/occluded front east of that. Both would be places to watch for storm initiation, and some model runs include warm-sector storms.
However, models have varied markedly on where they put these ingredients, and whether they put storms within those places (before dark). Other potential downsides include there being clouds earlier in the day and weak low-level lapse rates, as well as enough moisture throughout all altitudes to have me thinking about high-precipitation storms (though I admit I don't know how much moisture triggers that).
My overall take is that Tuesday has a high ceiling, but with a lot of question marks. Still, though we don't yet have a good sense of the details, there's enough there that I'm currently optimistic that at least somewhere will get some very interesting weather.
I also note fast storm movements are often shown in the simulated soundings, on the order of 40-50 mph. This looks like a good day for chasers to be extra cautious: From the outlook now, I could picture a high-precipitation supercell moving at 50mph with a strong tornado hidden by rain.
