2020-03-02 EVENT: AR/TN/MO/IL/KY

[Dan Robinson]

A bit of a sleeper event today under a belt of 60-80kt westerly winds aloft ahead of the upper wave. Models now showing dewpoints reaching the 60F mark in much of northeastern Arkansas, western Tennessee and the Missouri bootheel region this evening/night. With decent turning in the low levels thanks to a weak surface low, ~1500 MLCape along with looping albeit small hodographs yield 0-3km SRH peaking at 300-350. Negatives are weak surface flow and, from a chasing standpoint, the event peaking well after sunset. Visible satellite shows good insolation is happening along the MO/AR border area northward, and CAMs indicate supercell development around 00z. This is close enough that I may head down there to take a look. Lightning should be plentiful enough to observe storm features after dark.

 

[Dan Robinson]

Just tracked supercell from Sikeston, MO through Cairo, IL. A couple of good RFD surges, but weak motion at the surface. Storm was having trouble with balancing low level inflow. Lots of lightning. Heading back west to Poplar Bluff where surface flow is slightly better, but not great.

 

[Dan Robinson]

Tornado hit downtown Nashville tonight. Videos:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1234733638085902342

https://twitter.com/x/status/1234732582559997952

https://twitter.com/x/status/1234732705407012864

https://twitter.com/x/status/1234735341690638337

 

[Brandon Skalniak]

Were there any reports of major damage from that cell in Kentucky? The radar images of it were astounding.

 

[Mark Jack]

Here's a link to the article about the Nashville tornado that touched down late last night. Apparently there were several others in the area as well.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/03/03/nashville-tornado/

 

[James Gustina]

@Brandon Skalniak I haven't seen anything come over the wire out of Kentucky other than minor damage on that one near Crofton from around 10 PM that's also noted on the SPC Reports page.

Somewhat surprising that the boundary layer essentially didn't decouple at all into the nighttime hours, I'm guessing from the mixing going on with the showers and thunderstorms ahead of the cell and some convection to the south, before that storm ran over an area with mesoanalysis ESRH values > 300 m^2/s^2 and almost 550 0-1KM. Classic early spring strong tornado setup in the mid-south other than it being close to 1 in the morning.

 

[Joey Prom]

Have you seen the radar loop? It looks like a left mover clipped the front edge of the Nashville Supercell right before it entered Nashville. Ramped up the local shear and dewpoint. There were left and right splits going on like crazy yesterday. Was very educational to watch. Thoughts and prayers going out to all those affected.

 

[Zach J]

My deepest condolences to the family members of those affected. I was watching this storm for a while on the radar, and it looked pretty scary.

 

[Dan Robinson]

19 deaths so far from the Nashville tornado. I was also surprised to see this event end up so prolific that far east. Both the Kentucky and Nashville storm were well beyond where the warm sector had been shown by models. They both rode the rapidly-advancing warm frontal zone as it raced east.

Damage appears to be EF3+, possibly EF4 in places.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1234781124053946368

https://twitter.com/x/status/1234829984516145152

 

[Joey Prom]

Looks like a left mover just clipped the front of the Nashville Supercell right before it produced the Nashville Tornado. The radar loops were fascinating to watch yesterday. Praying for those impacted.

 

[James Wilson]

Death toll up to 19 ... Most I think since EF-5 Moore.

 

[Ryan Doan]

It was one of those unfortunate worst case scenarios. A large tornado, late at night, and a heavily populated area. Many were most likely asleep and I hope and pray for a speedy recovery for the good people of Nashville.

 

[JeremyS]

Up to 22 now.

 

[Joey Prom]

Death toll up to 19 ... Most I think since EF-5 Moore.

The Lee County Tornado a year ago killed 23 people.

 

[James Wilson]

The Lee County Tornado a year ago killed 23 people.

Oh that's right ... unfortunately this one may pass them both.