JamesCaruso
Staff member
Tuesday May 7 looks like a decent chase day in potentially some of the best chasing territory. SPC has the area outlooked in today’s Day 4. Per O6Z Saturday GFS, 90 hours valid at OZ Wednesday May 8, looks like there should be a triple point in northeastern NM / southeastern CO and a warm front draped across central/southern KS. The dryline is somewhat diffuse, and with the axis of the primary mid-level trough still back in AZ, the better 500mb flow will lag the best moisture in the TX portion of the risk area. However, it looks like a lead wave will bring 35 knot 500mb flow into southwest KS atop backed surface winds. This will likely be the case in southeast CO as well, as surface winds wrap into the low and where upper 50’s dews can easily get the job done. The cap is stronger in CO but hopefully elevation/upslope helps overcome that too. The GFS maximizes the supercell composite and EHI in southeast CO. Southwestern KS has some pros also, such as less of a cap and a decent LLJ. I’m not as excited about TX right now due to the diffuse dryline, borderline moisture and mid-level flow lagging to the west. Not an outbreak by any means, but a good “day before the day,” “The Day” maybe being Wednesday the 8th?