2018-10-09 EVENT: TX, OK, KS, MO, IA

[Marc Gebhard]

I don't see any one else posting here...so I'll get the discussion rolling. The latest run of the NAM is giving a pretty decent STP reading around late afternoon for north TX and SE OK for Tuesday. It looks like things could get interesting up in NE KS too. I'm sitting in DFW. We'll have to see what the early morning convection does for the situation. Anyone else have thoughts on this?

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=stp&rh=2018100900&fh=21&r=conus&dpdt=

 

[Randy Jennings]

I don't see any one else posting here...so I'll get the discussion rolling. The latest run of the NAM is giving a pretty decent STP reading around late afternoon for north TX and SE OK for Tuesday. It looks like things could get interesting up in NE KS too. I'm sitting in DFW. We'll have to see what the early morning convection does for the situation. Anyone else have thoughts on this?

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=stp&rh=2018100900&fh=21&r=conus&dpdt=

As of 8:30 am CDT 10/9, none of the models seem to be handling the faster foward speed of this system. I think the best we can hope for is another round to fire later this afternoon, but given the large amount of rain behind the leading edge in north TX and southern OK likely works the atmosphere over, my bet would be a target futher south in central TX. Since I am in DFW, I am going out, but expect it to be a flustering chase unless things change.