2018-04-13 EVENT: KS/MO/AR/IA/NE

[JamesCaruso]

Not looking at this too closely as I am many miles away on the east coast and over a month away from my chase vacation... But looks like a difficult targeting decision. The front in IA is very sharp but looks to be more of a stationary front and winds are not modeled to be very well backed even along it. Regardless, cells will race northward across it into very cool air. The mid level flow is more meridional here as well. I like eastern OK better, along the dry line and with somewhat more veered mid level flow, but there isn’t the greatest convergence along the dry line. Not a region I ever want to chase in anyway. If I lived in either region I would get out there just to see a storm after the long winter. But I wouldn’t make a long drive to either spot, even if I was on a chase vacation - not bullish enough on IA, and I find it pretty useless chasing in the trees of eastern OK.

 

[Jeremy Bower]

Coincidentally I will be in Falls City, NE later today to give a presentation at my weather/storm photography gallery opening....so why not possibly do a chase beforehand right? The northern and southern targets each have promise but that's about it. My primary concern for the southern target in C and SE KS is drier air aloft and higher LCLs (2000 to 4000 m potentially) which will probably limit supercell longevity. The strong downdrafts could lead to a quick transition from isolated supercells to mini bows in that area. Sufficient CAPE will be in place and likely 50-60 kts of effective shear. The northern target of SE NE and N KS near the triple point where I'll be offers probably earlier initiation and lower LCLs for better tornado chances before numerous competing updrafts makes things quite messy. Ideally I would stay near the surface low and hope a storm anchors itself to the warm front, then it's game on. I'm limited to where I can go today so triple point or bust for me.

 

[John Homenuk]

I echo the sentiments of those above who are expressing some caution in regards to the overall synoptic setup, but I still favor Eastern NE/Southwest IA for something of significance and visual appeal. On the chasers checklist, so to speak, it outweighs venturing south into the Arklatex to chase with these particular synoptics and the evolution in the mid and low levels. As some have mentioned there are VBV mines laying around everywhere on forecast soundings in the region and the 500hPa flow is running close to parallel to the front.

However, 0-3km/0-1km SRH is particularly enhanced near and just north of the psuedo frontal alignment that orients from W to E in Southwest IA later this afternoon. The SPC HREF paintballs are offering multiple CAM support on updraft initiation. Initial forecast soundings suggests the potential for discrete convection in a window that I suppose could last 30-60 minutes. If one of these can mature and then venture into the mentioned kinematic environment, something of significance could easily occur especially near the low level instability boundary and enhanced low level turning in Southwest IA. I would be positioned in Eastern NE ready to shift quickly NE into the favorable environment if I were chasing today. Best of luck to those of you out there

 

[Jeff Duda]

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[Warren Faidley]

Re: Target area today..... I've noticed several tornado reports today from NOAA aircraft as follows: REISSUANCE OF ORIGINAL LSR - TORNADO OBSERVED BY NOAA AIRCRAFT PROJECT VORTEX 1 MILE NORTH OF CALHOUN.

Does anyone know if there is a new project VORTEX this year?

Thanks.

 

[Clarence Bennett]

Re: Target area today..... I've noticed several tornado reports today from NOAA aircraft as follows: REISSUANCE OF ORIGINAL LSR - TORNADO OBSERVED BY NOAA AIRCRAFT PROJECT VORTEX 1 MILE NORTH OF CALHOUN.

Does anyone know if there is a new project VORTEX this year?

Thanks.

Warren, Vortex-SE is in full force. A couple of weeks ago, I saw the same P-3 in Alabama flying out ahead of the Russellville, AL storm...hurricane hunter aircraft.

 

[Mark Blue]

Maybe I should copy these last two posts and create a new thread in Advanced W&C. I noticed those reports myself yesterday and think it’s deserves a new thread. Are you guys okay with that @Warren Faidley and @Clarence Bennett? Not going to delete but rather copy them.

 

[rdale]

Here is Friday's track. It went to Florida today... https://flightaware.com/live/flight/NOAA42/history/20180413/1900Z/KHSV/KHSV

 

[Clarence Bennett]

Hey Mark, yes that is fine.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

 

[Mark Blue]

To continue the Vortex-SE conversation please see this thread:

https://stormtrack.org/community/threads/2018-vortex-se-operations.30105/#post-352992