2017-05-08 EVENT: CO, NM

[John Farley]

Looks like some decent potential tomorrow in eastern CO and perhaps far northeast NM. There will be upslope flow, decent CAPE for this altitude in the 1000-2000 range, dewpoints in the 50s and maybe low 60s (again, decent for this altitude) and a boundary in the form of a back-door cold front. Some disagreement among the models on exactly where that boundary will be, but if it is near either the Palmer Divide or the Raton Mesa, or maybe even if it is somewhere between, supercells will be likely and tornadoes possible. I am leaning strongly toward heading out for my first chase of the season, pretty good bet to at least see some pretty storms, and maybe more.

 

[David Mayhew]

I like the potential of the NM target, plus if in TX and won't make it to CO. HRRR has the CO out break turning into an mcs pretty quickly where as NM seems to remain a little more descrete


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[John Farley]

Some of you might find the following link interesting. It is about a tornado that occurred in the mountains northwest of Walsenburg at elevation 11,300 feet. I actually saw storms going up in this area a few hours earlier as I passed through Walsenburg on the way to my Palmer Divide target. It is not too often that a tornado does not get a damage survey until a couple months later because all of the roads to where it occurred were closed due to snow, but that is what happened in this case.

http://www.weather.gov/pub/20170508_Greenhorn_Tornado