John Farley
Supporter
This looks to me like a day with some potential in eastern NM and west TX. I will focus on the NM aspect since that is where I will most likely be chasing. Both the NAM and GFS are showing decent instability setting up east of the central mountains in NM with a sharpening dryline in an unusually west position, somewhere near the central mountains of NM. If the NAM forecast of CAPE in excess of 2000 by 0:00 Z verifies, this could be an interesting day, as that is more than enough to get things done at this altitude, particularly with the upslope flow that will be in place. Wind fields show considerable directional shear, although they are relatively weak, and as usual this year veer-back-veer looks to be a potential issue. The biggest question mark IMHO is impacts of possible overnight convection, which could be widespread over central and eastern NM. But if that clears out reasonably early and/or does not occur in some areas, there ought to be enough stabilization to get things going. And maybe a little mesoscale magic along any outflow boundaries that might be put down? Definitely looks to be worth the relatively easy drive for me to somewhere around the Vaughan/Ft. Sumner area, or maybe Roswell depending on where the best instability sets up.
