2016-04-20 EVENT: IA/IL/MO

[chrisbray]

OK, bit of a longshot here, but I thought it would at least be good practice. Might it be possible to squeeze a miracle tornado out of a storm in the border region of these states tomorrow? Stranger things have happened!

Upper 50s to lower 60s DPs look to overspread the area by the afternoon, with the cutoff low working its way across the region. Along with it comes an area of steep lapse rates and backed surface winds. Here are a few NAM forecast parameters
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Also, I checked CIPS and here is their probabilities along with the top two individual analogs:
View media item 1030View media item 1027View media item 1032
So, who knows. I won't be out there but I wonder if desperate Illinois chasers in the area like Dan and Skip will take a flier on a sleeper day?

 

[Dan Robinson]

Agreed, you can never turn your back on setups like these here. That said, the instability axis is really narrow, lapse rates look pretty pathetic and the low is stacked. I would play just southeast of the low center in that CAPE/shear "sweet spot" that the NAM's showing to be north of the Iowa border. Not quite something I'd drive 3+ hours for, but if skies clear out nicely and stay like that through midafternoon, it's definitely something to watch.