Ben Holcomb
EF5
The SPC has put out a slight risk with a mention of tornadic supercells over most of Arkansas tomorrow. This 'setup' has not been on my radar, but a little chatter on facebook got me to look into things a bit.
A blocking high pressure in the northeast US seems to keep an incoming shortwave over the moist warm sector which has been sucking moisture from the gulf for multiple days per vis sat loop as this closed-low system has moved from Texas north. The NAM shows a nice little neutral to negatively tilted shortwave currently over the 4 corners to eject over Arkansas tomorrow with an attendant surface low in NW AR. A warm front draped across the south north of I-40 seems to stick around as the warm sector moistens from now until then.
Mixing ratios are nice tomorrow, with observed soundings showing around 10 and forecast soundings showing around 12. Instability in the 1000-1500 J/KG range should be enough to form some supercells.
The degree of directional shear is a question mark in my book, but this might be the first legitimate setup of 2016 I consider chasing.
A blocking high pressure in the northeast US seems to keep an incoming shortwave over the moist warm sector which has been sucking moisture from the gulf for multiple days per vis sat loop as this closed-low system has moved from Texas north. The NAM shows a nice little neutral to negatively tilted shortwave currently over the 4 corners to eject over Arkansas tomorrow with an attendant surface low in NW AR. A warm front draped across the south north of I-40 seems to stick around as the warm sector moistens from now until then.
Mixing ratios are nice tomorrow, with observed soundings showing around 10 and forecast soundings showing around 12. Instability in the 1000-1500 J/KG range should be enough to form some supercells.
The degree of directional shear is a question mark in my book, but this might be the first legitimate setup of 2016 I consider chasing.