Quincy Vagell
EF4
An active pattern continues with what looks like another late day/evening event over portions of Texas and vicinity.
Low pressure is forecast to eject from the Rio Grande into Texas late Saturday, in response to an amplifying trough over the southern Rockies/northern Mexico. Low-level winds out of the south-southeast to southeast will have no problems advecting warm, moist air into much of Texas. The NAM/GFS/Euro all show SBCAPE reaching 1000-2000 J/kg (NAM is even more robust) by late-day.
Substantial height falls during the second half of the day will be accompanied by favorable mid-level lapse rates across much of Texas. The best overlap of shear/instability looks to target central to North Texas.
Like other events over the past couple of months, the timing is not ideal, nor does the limited amount of daylight help matters. While the NAM shows some convection over North Texas and Oklahoma late in the afternoon, the signal for more robust convection doesn't show up until overnight. Any early storms would probably have more of a hail threat than anything, given lapse rates, but into early evening, I suspect that damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two could also develop.
Through the night, a squall line will likely form over West/central Texas and spread east. Any tornado threat will hinge heavily upon storm mode, as any discrete storms out ahead of the line would have the greatest tornado potential. Even still, damaging winds and brief, embedded tornadoes could accompany the line as well.
Given poor instability, the severe threat further north into southern/southeastern Oklahoma appears minimal, although I suppose a few damaging wind gusts could impact that area as well.
The threat shifts into East Texas early Sunday - but given that we're still a ways out and it's the next day, I'll hold off on starting that thread until details become more clear.
Low pressure is forecast to eject from the Rio Grande into Texas late Saturday, in response to an amplifying trough over the southern Rockies/northern Mexico. Low-level winds out of the south-southeast to southeast will have no problems advecting warm, moist air into much of Texas. The NAM/GFS/Euro all show SBCAPE reaching 1000-2000 J/kg (NAM is even more robust) by late-day.
Substantial height falls during the second half of the day will be accompanied by favorable mid-level lapse rates across much of Texas. The best overlap of shear/instability looks to target central to North Texas.
Like other events over the past couple of months, the timing is not ideal, nor does the limited amount of daylight help matters. While the NAM shows some convection over North Texas and Oklahoma late in the afternoon, the signal for more robust convection doesn't show up until overnight. Any early storms would probably have more of a hail threat than anything, given lapse rates, but into early evening, I suspect that damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two could also develop.
Through the night, a squall line will likely form over West/central Texas and spread east. Any tornado threat will hinge heavily upon storm mode, as any discrete storms out ahead of the line would have the greatest tornado potential. Even still, damaging winds and brief, embedded tornadoes could accompany the line as well.
Given poor instability, the severe threat further north into southern/southeastern Oklahoma appears minimal, although I suppose a few damaging wind gusts could impact that area as well.
The threat shifts into East Texas early Sunday - but given that we're still a ways out and it's the next day, I'll hold off on starting that thread until details become more clear.
