2015-1-22 MISC: NM/TX

[Marcus Diaz]

First sizeable snow event of the season for the Texas panhandle. The NAM has been trending towards a bigger event then what was previously forecasted. A big deep low over the southwest should propagate over the panhandles bringing plenty of lift through the early morning hours on Thursday. Decent moisture plots behind a cold front should keep the event mostly to snow. Last night it was a 2-4" swath over Amarillo. But the 6z and 12z showing a wide area of 10-12" over the panhandle. If this is indeed the case I'll likely be out and about in my 4x4 getting some pictures and helping motorists.

Here's the 12z NAM predictions of the snowfall:

 

[Caleb Grunzke]

When Texas will have more snow than most of Minnesota...

 

[James Gustina]

Looking like the western half of the Panhandles are gonna be snowed in pretty good along with most of NE New Mexico from Taos east over the mountains onto the plains. Are they still projecting 4-8" in Cimarron and the far western TX counties?

 

[Brady Kendrick]

Looking at the data through today, looks like a really solid event, especially for the central/western Panhandles over towards ABQ and then up into southern Colorado even. I was looking at some of the plume stuff and some are even starting to push towards a solid foot for the Amarillo area, a foot and a half for the US 87 route between Dalhart and Raton, NM. Right now I would say a solid 4 to 8 inches of snow looks pretty likely across most of the Panhandle with local 12 inch totals scatter around. I would expect I-40 to even close between ABQ and Amarillo at some point knowing how it is with past events living there for 20 years. Going to be a fun one to watch unfold.

 

[Brady Kendrick]

Here is the trend on the SPC's plume page for the Amarillo area from earlier this afternoon. This is the one that shows the trend of each run (note the key) with the red being the latest. As many say, "the trend is your friend" and pretty much across the board the models have been on this upward trend for the Panhandle region.

 

[James Gustina]

Looks like the Canadian River Valley down SW of AMA is getting a pretty decent amount of snowfall at the moment.

 

[Brady Kendrick]

Looks like the rain/snow line has pushed well south of Amarillo at this point. Looks like the event is going pretty much as anticipated. Widespread 5 to 8 inches of snow on the Caprock with a lot of areas seeing 8 to a foot (especially the further west you go). Off the Caprock, depending on location looks like anywhere from 3 to 5 except for the SE sector where they may only get around 2 or so since they got a lot warmer today. The latest guidance for further east is interesting too, kinda on the up-tick in terms of totals for the I-40 corridor over towards OKC. Could be one of those surprise events if things cool off a bit extra than expected.

 

[Brady Kendrick]

Wow, sure looking like a few locations in the NW/N-central Panhandle could easily see one foot, or even more by time this is all said and done. Hartley reported 6.0 inches of snow at 6:20PM central time.

 

[Marcus Diaz]

A fairly heavy snow band is sitting parallel to I-40 right now from about Vega to Conway. It's been stationary for quite some time. I imagine I-40 will be closed soon because of it.

 

[Brady Kendrick]

Safe to say the forecast verified. snowfall rates up to 4 inches per hour reported in Amarillo. Some areas already over a foot (currently midnight). Hell, some areas around AMA are going to be above the expected totals.

 

[Marcus Diaz]

Yup this is just like 2 years ago with that massive blizzard. Several parts in Amarillo reporting 10-12" of snow an hour ago. That band is STILL stuck over I-40 and in no hurry to move. Safe to say we may end up with totals pushing 15+ inches here.

 

[Marcus Diaz]

I'll have a full album up tonight of my pics. Here's a pic my mom sent me from Hereford, TX this morning where they received a solid 10" of snow. Also attached is the totals from the area via NWS. I live a few miles SE of AMA in that patch of 12-14.

 

[Wesley Luginbyhl]

Here are some pictures I took about 8am this morning. Measured 14" in the backyard and 13" in the front. Not ideal measuring places, but seemed to be pretty good averages for what I was seeing around my house. Pictures can be found here on facebook. Storm really came together perfectly over Amarillo.