2015-05-08 EVENT: KS/OK/TX

[Randy Jennings]

Just compared the 08/11z,12z,and 13z HRRR runs and noticed a few things interesting. When looking at 6 PM and 7 PM today, each model run has moved the greatest convection further south from SW OK to NW TX. The 13z HRRR also has the storms taking on more of a bowing MCS look at 7 PM. The other thing that caught my eye is the 12z run fires convection out ahead of this along a boundary from Wichita Falls to Baton Rouge at 8 PM. The 13z run does the same, but makes it look a little more discrete and more focused to the east of the DFW area. If I had time to go that far today I think I would head towards Wichita Falls. Since I don't have time, and I'm thinking today might be a repeat of yesterday where some storms will fire in front of the obvious action area, I think I will play it closer to home in DFW. I suspect we might see something worth looking at in Montague, Cooke, Grayson, Wise, Denton, or Collin counties. It likely will not be as good as the Wichita Falls area, but a much shorter drive for me.

 

[Randy Jennings]

Radar trends when compared with hi res models do not lend much confidence... not liking the way things are trending.

Which model are you looking at? The HRRR seems to be doing an decent job, but it is a hot start model and would be better in the near term than a cold start model.

 

[Zack Hargrove]

Which model are you looking at? The HRRR seems to be doing an decent job, but it is a hot start model and would be better in the near term than a cold start model.

The HRRR has been about 4-5 hours late on the convection now firing in TX... it did not pick up on the early initiation in that region at all. Experience watching the HRRR for a long time tells me when I see that it does not have a good handle on the atmosphere right now. Very similar to what happened yesterday when it was late firing convection. I don't see how we can use the HRRR as a credible model until it models what is going on with the current convection correctly. The 14z run is a little bit better but still not great.

 

[Tim Supinie]

I'm not very optimistic about the OFB from last night's MCS making it much farther north than its current position. Clouds are being reinforced by isentropic ascent, and the airmass is refusing to modify via surface fluxes, probably because all the rain that area has had recently. Combine that with the outflow from the developing cluster north of Lubbock, and it seems pretty likely to me it will keep its current position.

I am becoming much more interested in the area between Lubbock and Midland. The Midland 12Z sounding is solid, and there is already clearing ahead of the dryline. Subsidence under the shortwave ridge is probably keeping the everything from going now; the lift from the trough should help to remove that cap this afternoon. Honestly, it could probably go anytime and put up a pretty big storm; low-level flow fields (based on the KMAF VAD wind profile) are pretty similar to the 12Z sounding, and there's probably already a stupid amount of CAPE, based on modifying the 12Z sounding for the 15Z surface conditions.

BTW, the HRRR is junk today; you all should stop looking at it.

 

[Brian McKibben]

Watching storm near hollis. It looks like it is trying to turn right and move more easterly. There is a great swath of 70+ Tds south of I-44. If this latches onto that front it could become a player. Next 30 minutes will be interesting to see how this develops.

EDIT:
Rapid clearing in S Central OK. Temps in the low 80s too. Storms also popping again near Lubbock. I would target S of I-44 corridor.