2015-05-05 EVENT: TX/NM

[Ben Holcomb]

Tomorrow looks like a potential sleeper day out around Lubbock. Directional shear is alright and the NAM progs almost 2000 CAPE on tonights 00Z run.

I'm a little concerned about early initiation in New Mexico and potential cloudcover leftover in the Texas Panhandle from tonight. If the lubbock area and points south can stay clear throughout the day it looks like anvil level winds really improve between 21 and 00Z tomorrow night. That with SE 850mb winds/LLJ should provide some good environments for storms around 5-6. Whether or not we can get them is another story.

Moisture looks pretty good, especially with all the ongoing storms currently. That gives a little worry about lapse rates, but they should recover somewhat throughout the day tomorrow with steep lapse rates up stream.

Looks like a good chase day with a lot of caveats. I'll be taking a stab at it.

 

[James Langford]

I think I am going to play a bit farther south today. NAM shows nice clearing down along I20 west of Abilene with the DL setup near by. Also seems like a nice DL bulge down in that area. Nicely backed winds and farther removed from the ongoing MCS up to the north. Hoping for a few OFBs to make there way down there as well.

 

[Marcus Diaz]

Somewhat of a tough forecast. But its easy to figure out where to go. Just need to watch satellite and mesoanalysis. Find the better lapse rates under some clearing and look for OFBs. Last night's 0z showed a well defined dryline bulge near LBB, so I'd expect initiation off the nose of that. Hopefully the environment out ahead of it recovers from ongoing precip. I'm hopeful of something good today out east of LBB and south of CDS.