One of the better looking days coming up is this Wednesday. Not exactly a typical synoptic scale pattern. In fact, it looks like flow at all levels above the PBL is pretty much zonal, although we may be looking at some weak height rises as the atmosphere responds to an upstream trough developing over the southern CA Pacific coast/Baja region.
The details have some time to get ironed out, but it looks like there will be a dryline somewhere across C TX up into S/W OK during the day. One of the positive aspects of this setup is moisture quality. It looks entirely possible we may see 70 F dewpoints in proximity to the dryline (at least the southern portions of it). If the 12Z NAM is to be believed, moisture depth will also be very good. There may be some lee cyclogenesis going on, so surface winds may be backed a little, but it doesn't appear winds will be much more backed than about 170 or so. However, with solid W winds behind the dryline, there should be some decent convergence and forcing. That forcing will be needed given the general lack of lift and the potential for capping. 700 mb temps will be a little warm, although nothing higher than any other event we've seen so far this year. But there does look to be a bit of a warm nose in the 900-750 mb layer, which will provide for some resistance.
Probably the biggest weakness in this setup is the wind just above the PBL. 850-700 mb winds look pretty weak, leaving a notch in forecast hodographs which could make things messy. However, I have been able to find soundings that show that weakness reduced or absent, in which case hodographs have some curve in the low levels. Coupled with very fast flow in the enhanced sub-tropical jet, there is some pretty large and deep shear for this event. I can't remember the last time I chased a setup that had such a strong jet directly overhead. Anvils on any storms that do go up will absolutely fly off to the east.
Seems like the biggest question for this setup is CI. Will there be enough forcing and a weak enough cap to get storms to go? We shall see.
The details have some time to get ironed out, but it looks like there will be a dryline somewhere across C TX up into S/W OK during the day. One of the positive aspects of this setup is moisture quality. It looks entirely possible we may see 70 F dewpoints in proximity to the dryline (at least the southern portions of it). If the 12Z NAM is to be believed, moisture depth will also be very good. There may be some lee cyclogenesis going on, so surface winds may be backed a little, but it doesn't appear winds will be much more backed than about 170 or so. However, with solid W winds behind the dryline, there should be some decent convergence and forcing. That forcing will be needed given the general lack of lift and the potential for capping. 700 mb temps will be a little warm, although nothing higher than any other event we've seen so far this year. But there does look to be a bit of a warm nose in the 900-750 mb layer, which will provide for some resistance.
Probably the biggest weakness in this setup is the wind just above the PBL. 850-700 mb winds look pretty weak, leaving a notch in forecast hodographs which could make things messy. However, I have been able to find soundings that show that weakness reduced or absent, in which case hodographs have some curve in the low levels. Coupled with very fast flow in the enhanced sub-tropical jet, there is some pretty large and deep shear for this event. I can't remember the last time I chased a setup that had such a strong jet directly overhead. Anvils on any storms that do go up will absolutely fly off to the east.
Seems like the biggest question for this setup is CI. Will there be enough forcing and a weak enough cap to get storms to go? We shall see.