2015-03-31 EVENT: OK

[Ben Holcomb]

The 18Z and 00Z NAM both show some high CAPE values tomorrow in Southern Oklahoma and the SPC has outlooked a slight risk.

Upper level support isn't bad with 75 knots at 300mb. Mid level support is a little more iffy with only 25 knots at 500mb at best. The better upper support will be leaving the target area at 00Z or shortly thereafter.

the 00Z NAM shows almost 4000 CAPE around Ardmore and nearly 5000 CAPE near Ada, OK. I don't buy that high of CAPE, but like last Wednesday we have very steep lapse rates with dry adiabatic lapse rates on the 00Z DDC sounding tonight and 8-8.5 mid level lapse rates widespread over the southern plains this evening.

Moisture return seems to be doing alright as well, with lower to mid 60 dewpoints arriving in southern Oklahoma this evening. The high over Florida seems to be aiding in return flow to the southern plains off the gulf. The 00Z FWD sounding has decent moisture to 850mb.

Large hail would be the main threat tomorrow, but I wouldn't rule out supercells with marginal shear and high CAPE values.

I'll be targeting south of Norman near Ardmore, OK around 5pm

 

[James Hyde]

I was just looking at SHARPy soundings, looks decent, low level shear is meh, but with 3k SBCAPE, not shabby. Structure, Hailers, a storm scale tornado accident.. all on the table. Background STP is like 1.25-1.5... Good enough for a EF-0/1 if things work out.

 

[Drew Terril]

For those who venture into SW OK, be advised that the KFDR radar is down.

"Mar 30 2015 20:33:51

KDFR RADAR WILL REMAIN DOWN TO PREVENT TRANSMITTER OVERHEATING. PARTS ARE ON ORDER. IF NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND/OR TUESDAY, RADAR WILL BE BROUGHT UP AND USED AS LONG AS POSSIBLE."

The moisture is definitely back. I could feel a thickness to the air that I haven't felt in a while. Dew point here in Yukon is 57. That said, I don't see enough shear to do a whole lot with. I'm thinking hail and some form of MCS mess. I don't see much in the way of discrete cells. I'm not going out, but if I were I would probably be targeting Comanche or Duncan.

 

[Ben Holcomb]

Still liking today even without the lower level shear. CAPE values around noon are showing 2500 on mesoanalysis with 65 degree dewpoints showing up in southern Oklahoma. Definitely could have a nice looking storm later if something is able to fire.

 

[STexan]

That is not good regarding the Frederick WSR.

You mean we'll have to rely on our own visual queue's? I'm hanging around Gould (was passing through anyway from CO) to hopefully get some nice structure later on as the light gets better, shooting from the west. I'm going to monitor KTLX for echo tops and see if that can't give me some better indication of development out near Altus. Not expecting to "chase" today and hoping for a leisurely stroll across the SW Oklahoma plains.

 

[STexan]

Something came up and had to bail towards DFW but it looks like there wasn't anything worth hanging around for anyway. Hope somebody captured something worthwhile.