James Gustina
Supporter
12Z NAM for this morning is still rolling in but this day is finally within a reasonable range to make a forecast thread about. Right now, it's looking like the quasi-stationary front kind of wobbling southward will begin rocketing north Friday night into Saturday through N Texas in advance of really strong moisture advection out of the GOM. Mid-upper 60s dews are being progged from the Gulf Coast all the way up to north of Dallas along the Red River in advance of a very compact, neutral shortwave ejecting out ahead of the main longwave energy. South-central Texas is looking like it'll be directly under the best upper-level diffluence as the trough shoots out over the Rio Grande towards the MS River Valley.
The shear environment has been looking great, with ~25 knots 0-1km shear and strong deep-layer shear around 45 knots coupled with decent storm-relative anvil level winds around 30 knots. The issue is due southerly H5 winds could spell issues for ventilation down the road but I feel like storms will be more affected by the saturated profiles the day of than the winds aloft. The biggest pitfall is not surprisingly instability, with the main instability axis being somewhat displaced from the best shear. MLCAPE values around 1000 j/kg and a bit higher are still being progged south of Waco near the best shear but further north it looks like contamination from the previous day's convection will temper surface temps and prevent meaningful diabatic heating from occurring.
Semi-discrete supercells near Austin looks like a possibility if everything above goes to plan with a window for some tornadoes but I'm also still concerned that the skinny profiles being shown are gonna really limit this event.
The shear environment has been looking great, with ~25 knots 0-1km shear and strong deep-layer shear around 45 knots coupled with decent storm-relative anvil level winds around 30 knots. The issue is due southerly H5 winds could spell issues for ventilation down the road but I feel like storms will be more affected by the saturated profiles the day of than the winds aloft. The biggest pitfall is not surprisingly instability, with the main instability axis being somewhat displaced from the best shear. MLCAPE values around 1000 j/kg and a bit higher are still being progged south of Waco near the best shear but further north it looks like contamination from the previous day's convection will temper surface temps and prevent meaningful diabatic heating from occurring.
Semi-discrete supercells near Austin looks like a possibility if everything above goes to plan with a window for some tornadoes but I'm also still concerned that the skinny profiles being shown are gonna really limit this event.