Andy Wehrle
EF5
One of the few impressive troughs to actually dig into the midsection of the country this year is coming up over the next few days, but it's still 2014 so naturally there are some issues. 
That said, if the NAM is to be believed, I'm liking east-central IL into west-central IN better than anyplace in the SPC's 30% sig area as far as tornado potential on Monday goes. Forecast CAPE is as high as anywhere, EHI as high or higher, and it's the only region where the 500MB flow will actually be veered relative to the 850 flow. That, and it's closer to me. Forecast moisture is quite high for October, so it's probably anemic lapse rates keeping the CAPE down. Still, I'm tempted to head south and just hang with the warm front to see what happens given a little heating.
That said, if the NAM is to be believed, I'm liking east-central IL into west-central IN better than anyplace in the SPC's 30% sig area as far as tornado potential on Monday goes. Forecast CAPE is as high as anywhere, EHI as high or higher, and it's the only region where the 500MB flow will actually be veered relative to the 850 flow. That, and it's closer to me. Forecast moisture is quite high for October, so it's probably anemic lapse rates keeping the CAPE down. Still, I'm tempted to head south and just hang with the warm front to see what happens given a little heating.
